Predicting the Warriors’ possible first round playoff matchups
The playoffs are fast approaching and with Curry being sidelined until around the first round, the Warriors find themselves in a tricky position. They have twelve remaining regular-season games including matchups against the Heat, Grizzlies, Suns, Jazz, and Lakers. So while they have given themselves a decent cushion from the Jazz who are in fourth place with three fewer wins, they still trail the Grizzlies by one game for the second spot in the West. If the playoffs started today they would find themselves in a matchup with the Denver Nuggets and possible MVP this season in Nikola Jokic.
During the regular season, the Warriors went 1-3 against the Nuggets with a few of the games coming down to the wire and with both teams missing a few players. The obvious question would arise in who would stop Jokic and his ability to dominate the game. The answer is no one but the majority of the role would go to Looney and Green. They would have to make other guys shoot and win them the game as Jokic can be too unstoppable if he gets going. With the new acquisition of Demarcus Cousins and Aaron Gordon this season, the Nuggets definitely would have the size advantage down low and the ability to grab more rebounds which would lead to more second-chance points. Not to mention that their backcourt has been steady throughout the year even without their star point guard Jamal Murray. The Dubs could take some advice from the Nuggets as they have formed a very deep team that has guys that are willing and able to score and play their role at a high level around the former MVP. I do, however, think that the Warriors would have a good shot to beat them, but they would have to lock in defensively down the stretch. I could see either team winning in six or seven games and this series coming down to the wire especially if Steph returns for the Warriors and Michael Porter Jr returns for Denver.
Let's say the Warriors win most of their remaining games and somehow overtake the number two spot without Steph. They would play the young and talented Timberwolves squad. This is a worrying first-round opponent for the Dubs as KAT would give them all sorts of problems with their lack of size. They are 2-2 this season against the T-Wolves but some of the games came when neither team was at full strength. But with the return of Draymond and possibly Steph, I still believe that the Warriors would have the upper hand. Several players on the roster including Klay, Draymond, Looney, and a likely return from Iguodala would give the Dubs the much-needed veteran experience to make the right decisions down the stretch if need be. On the other side though, KAT, Anthony Edwards, and Beasly have little to no playoff experience and might feel some nerves coming into a series against the playoff savvy Warriors. But they do have the team leader and scrappy play of Patrick Beverley who has a complicated history with the Dubs in the playoffs. It would be interesting to see how Andrew Wiggins performs against his old team in a playoff setting as he always does well against them. And the same can be said for D’Angelo Russell who had a brief stint with the Warriors but has found his stride this season. The two X-Factors in the series would be how well D-Lo and KAT play and if Klay, Draymond, and (possibly Steph’s) combined experience could overcome the T-Wolves who have something to prove in the playoffs. I could see the Warriors winning in four or five games but I do think it could be a prolonged series if the young guys step up.
And lastly, a very unlikely but possible scenario is the Warriors fall to fourth place and have to play the Mavs in the first round. They are also 1-3 this season against the Mavs and have had some tough losses at the hands of Luka Doncic. He would be a problem for them defensively as he has established himself as one of the most unguardable players in the league. Doncic has also made a name for himself in the few playoff games that he has played, one of which he eliminated a tough Kawhi Leonard and Paul George-led Clippers team. This matchup would favor the Warriors down low as the Mavs are also experiencing some lack of height in the paint even though they have Boban on their bench. Luka has proven his worth in the playoffs already, but it would be up to his teammates to be consistent and ready to win when they face up against the seasoned Warriors in the first round. I do think the Dubs would be able to win in five or six games with relative ease despite their struggles beating them this season.
The playoffs are almost here, but I do think it is more likely that the Warriors will hold their spot in third place even if they have a few hairy losses down the stretch. This would mean that come playoff time they need to lock in defensively and be ready to face off against one of the best big men in the NBA in Nikola Jokic. Hopefully, Curry will be back in time, rested and ready to help lead the team to the second round as the competition is stiff and there is no true favorite to win it all. But it is the NBA playoffs after all, and anything could happen.
(Photo credit: Jeff Chiu / Associated Press)