Realistic Expectations for Klay Thompson's Return

It has literally been 2 years since Klay Thompson has stepped on the court in a Golden State Warriors jersey. Let that sink in.

The Warriors have been a completely different team after Thompson went down with a torn ACL in the 2019 NBA Finals. The year following his injury, Golden State also lost Kevin Durant to free agency and Stephen Curry to a broken hand, which caused the team to post a league worst 15-50 record during the year of the coronavirus.

Despite the rough record, Klay was making quick progress behind the scenes and gearing up for a strong return in the 2020-21 NBA season. However, that didn’t go according to plan either. Just hours before the 2020 NBA draft, Thompson tore his right achilles in an off-season workout, setting him back yet another year.

When (God-willing) Klay returns to the court this upcoming season, he will have missed 2.5 years of NBA action, which isn’t something a player comes back from easily, no matter his skill level. Even so, having Klay share the court with fellow splash-brother Steph Curry and Draymond Green will be a sight for sore eyes for every NBA fan. If it’s any consolation, though, John Wall made his return this year after missing a similar amount of time. He went on to average 20.6 points, 3.2 rebounds and 6.9 assists in 40 games played this year. Those numbers should give us Warriors fans some hope.

So, can we expect Klay’s numbers to look similarly to Wall’s even after 2.5 years of missed NBA action? I wouldn’t count on it. As much as it might hurt to admit, given that Klay is coming off two of the toughest injuries to recover from in the game of basketball, he isn’t going to be able to play 35+ minutes a game while simultaneously locking down the opponent’s best player and posting 20+ efficient points every night like he used to. That’s not to say that he can’t ever get back to that level of production as in Wall’s case, but it’s simply not going to happen right out of the gate. With all due respect, Thompson and the Warriors have much more to play for than Wall’s Houston Rockets at this point, so keeping Klay healthy throughout the season is going to be the team’s number one goal. Even if he did possess the physical ability to put up similar numbers as before his injuries, the Warriors’ coaches, doctors and front office wouldn’t even let him try at first.

Klay knows this, too. In a recent hilarious and endearing livestream (what more should we expect from Klay’s social media game?) on Instagram, Klay said this in response to someone saying that he should average 28 points a game when he returns:

“Twenty-eight points per game? That’s a lot, man. I’ll take a dub and some great defense, how bout that? Fifty, 40, 90—that’s the goal.”

He later went on to say that he just wants to help Golden State win some games.

“How many points am I going to average next year? You know, I’m not going to put an expectation on it. I just want to be an efficient player. I want to have a positive impact on the hardwood. That real plus-minus stuff. That analytical stuff, you feel me?”

Even with Klay coming off two massive injuries, his mere presence on the court this season should allow Golden State to once again have one of the most potent offenses in the league. Despite their over-achieving record this past year, the Warriors were sorely missing another consistent outside scoring threat to take some of the offensive load off of Steph Curry’s back.

Still, the Warriors need to be careful with Klay. Even if his achilles doesn’t get re-injured this year, the team will have to be on the lookout for additional injuries caused by a weaker, surgically-repaired achilles tendon. Dr. Nirav Pandya, MD had some good thoughts to share on the topic:

“A longer recovery (up to a year) can allow for more Achilles remodeling, but too rapid a return to high loads (i.e. min/game) can lead to compensatory injuries. A slow ramp up is key.”

“Unlike an ACL reconstruction (where a completely new piece of tissue is placed in the knee), an Achilles repair involves repairing the damaged tissue & sewing it together (then subjecting it to NBA loads). Reducing Klay's wear/tear through reduced minutes / games will be key.”

A word to the wise: be patient with Klay once he makes his return. It helps that Klay is one of the best two-way players in the league, but getting back to the 35+ mpg iron man that he was before his injuries will take some time. Plus, his return most likely won’t solve all of Golden State’s problems. Thankfully, though, Klay’s recovery should be aided by the defensive emergence of Andrew Wiggins, who will likely be guarding the opponent’s toughest players for the foreseeable future, and should allow Thompson some adequate time to get back into game shape.

If nothing else, it will be fantastic to have Klay’s infectious attitude back on the team, which is an underrated impact in and of itself. Get ready for some great defense, consistent, efficient three-point shooting and a whole lot of joy from one of the most beloved players in Golden State Warriors history this year.