Odds Potentially Will Be in the Dubs' Favor Tuesday

Warriors President Rick Welts will be at Tuesday’s NBA Draft Lottery, calling in via Zoom. Golden State is in the Lottery – it missed the postseason, after all – following its loss to Memphis in the inaugural play-in.

But a key acquisition from the Minnesota Timberwolves in a 2020 trade involving D’Angelo Russell and Andrew Wiggins means Welts’ trip might not just be ceremonial, as he could see the Warriors reap a major reward of the deal.

Made a month before COVID-19 blew up the NBA and the world at large, the Feb. 7, 2020 trade had Golden State send Russell, Omari Spellman and Jacob Evans to Minnesota in exchange for Wiggins, a 2021 second round pick and the all-important 2021 top-three protected first round pick.

Now anything in the first round bodes well for Warriors fans – but what does “top-three protected” mean? It’s pretty simple, even for somebody like me, to understand that the Timberwolves’ “ping-pong ball” is what we should be looking at, but let’s take a dive into what Golden State fans should be rooting for come June 22, and who could be available if the front office were to get what it wants.

Top-three protected means the pick will go back to Minnesota if it lands in the first three spots in the lottery. Thus, the pick is protected for the Timberwolves, despite their trade. If this were to happen, it does not mean the Warriors will just lose a key piece in the deal, but rather get their trade partner’s 2022 first rounder no matter where it ends up being.

This is how the odds break down – there is a 27.61% chance the Timberwolves’ pick lands in the top three of the lottery, giving the Warriors their unprotected pick in 2022.

There is a greater than 50% chance Minnesota’s pick lands between No. 7 and No. 9, with the 29.77% probability of Golden State getting the No. 7 pick being the highest of any possible outcome. There is an 8.62% chance the Warriors get the No. 6 pick and no way they get the fifth selection. The best case scenario for the 2021 NBA Draft is getting the No. 4 pick, which has a 9.62% chance of happening. Well, that is not entirely true – Golden State has a 2.41% chance of getting their own first rounder in the top four picks of the draft, but the most likely outcome (97.59%) leaves them at the No. 14 pick.

Now that this is all established, which players in the fourth to ninth picks could be in the Warriors’ reach if the Timberwolves’ draft choice falls away from protection Tuesday?

One very exciting potential outcome is Gonzaga guard Jalen Suggs, who has shown flashes of his potential backcourt mate in Stephen Curry and boasts good explosiveness. After all, a Jordan Poole and Suggs reserve backcourt behind Curry and Klay Thompson would be an enticing possibility.

Tennessee forward Keon Johnson and Baylor guard Davion Mitchell figure to be available in the No. 5 and 6 picks, while Bleacher Report and NBC Sports Boston have Oklahoma State guard Cade Cunningham, USC center Evan Mobley and G-League Ignite alum guard Jalen Green as the top three picks.

These speculations could also be made moot by a trade of the pick, including players and picks bundled together to try to get a bonafide star at Chase Center. Luckily for us, the direction of the front office could hopefully make itself clearer at 5:30 p.m. Tuesday on ESPN.