2023-2024 Warriors Season Wrap-Up
After their play-in loss to the Sacramento Kings, there was almost a sigh of relief to be breathed amongst Golden State Warriors fans from what was a rollercoaster of a season.
It’s hard to say that a team who won 46 games underachieved, especially in a Western Conference that looks like the toughest it’s been in years (an achievement itself), but the amount of blown leads and inconsistencies up and down the roster has been a frustrating experience to say the least.
There’s plenty to go over, from diagnosing what we saw, and checking in on what we could see for next year. So without further delay, we’ll take a look at the past, present, and future of this year’s Warriors team.
What Went Wrong?
We can start with the easy question first: How did this season turn upside down when it looked like, at the season’s beginning, the Warriors were going to come back swinging after a disappointing playoff exit in Los Angeles last year? Exhibit A is Draymond Green’s suspension. After clocking Jusuf Nurkic with a reckless swing, Dray was absent for the next 12 games of what proved to be a key stretch of basketball for a Warriors team that was constantly jockeying for position. While they went 7-5 in that stretch, it included some games that retrospectively seem winnable should he be a participant (the thriller against the Nuggets which ended with Nikola Jokic’s half-court game winner, and games against both the Raptors and Mavericks come to mind).
While there was plenty of regret from both him and the team about how his season ended up playing out, Steve Kerr gave a great example of why he’s such a good players’ coach with his backing for the 4-time champ.
“I have so much faith in Draymond because I know him so well as a human being” Kerr said during his exit interviews while acknowledging the mistakes Dray made this year. “The number one thing I would say is, if we decided he wasn’t worth it, then we would have moved off of him years ago.”
Green is a wildly-important part of this team, both as the heart of the locker room and a game-changing defensive player. He was a key part of why the Warriors’ defensive rating skyrocketed to a top-5 unit after the all-star break once he’d been fully reintegrated to the rotation with Kerr’s numerous adjustments.
Which brings us to Exhibit B: The roster construction. It was evident for much of the season that some guys who usually have it going in Andrew Wiggins and Klay Thompson very much did not have it going early-on. The secondary offensive generator on the team could be anyone not named Stephen Curry on any given night, a role that fell to Jonathan Kuminga as well as Klay and Wiggs. It’s easy to pin the lack of success on inconsistent roles caused by Kerr’s constant tinkering, but a lot of those problems go away if the Warriors have a second shot creator on the roster… which they did not, in part because of the Jordan Poole trade but also in part by the assumption that anyone on the roster could do that when they hadn’t shown they were capable of it.
While Kuminga’s expected year 3 leap showed how good he can be (and he was, indeed, a reason they won a few games they otherwise wouldn’t have), that kind of workload can’t be expected of him when he hasn’t had the room to grow into a true scoring option. Unless he turns into an offensive hub over the course of the offseason, his role likely falls into the one Andrew Wiggins is currently occupying, creating some overlap between the two with neither really taking on heavy creation responsibilities. This was a bit of an issue across the roster, with a few similar skillsets each bringing low-minute value, but none really going above and beyond to take the reins as the number 2 option.
“It’s not enough” Kerr said when discussing the Warriors’ ability to still pull out 46 wins this season despite the turmoil and lack of cohesion. “So we have to think about where we are in relation to the rest of the conference. It is way harder now than it was nine years ago to succeed in this conference.”
They also lacked size until Trayce Jackson-Davis proved he was a starting-caliber center, but even then his 6’9 height was no match for giants like Nikola Jokic and Anthony Davis. There was no big-man bruiser on the lineup who could give a few good defensive minutes for the larger 7-footers which are prevalent across most of the best teams in the West. All in all, the Warriors lacked an identity outside of Steph and relied on a “next man up” approach for the entire season, something that teams with clear 1st and 2nd options don’t have to deal with save a few niche instances, on top of a lot of overlapping roster issues and a lack of size which didn’t help them on the defensive end much.
Where Do They Go From Here?
This is a bit harder to answer than a season post-mortem, since there’s a lot of ways that this offseason could result in Golden State with the looming question of both Klay Thompson’s extension, and Chris Paul’s expiring deal. The first (and most blatantly-wrong) option would be to resign your guys and blame the season on misfortune, whether that’s Draymond’s availability or the availability of other guys like Gary Payton II and Andrew Wiggins. That solves almost nothing, but it at least operates on the possibility that the young guys will get better while the vets still have gas in the tank.
Another option is to make a trade for that second shot creator. The question is a two-part one, however: Who is that player, and who do you give up to get him? The list of immediate candidates most likely includes Hawks guard Dejounte Murray, who was mentioned as a possible piece that Atlanta would move at the deadline, and one the Warriors were connected to. It could also net veteran big Clint Capela, but it would likely mean that Wiggins and Kuminga are both gone, and they’d be joined by someone else in the process (possibly Kevon Looney).
Murray’s a 6’5, versatile guard who has a history of being a very good defender when he isn’t lighting it up on offense. He’s improved every season he’s been in the league despite a major setback with an ACL tear a few years ago, and while Capela isn’t a worldbreaker of a center, he’s got a workable contract and he’s only got one more year of it while still being 29 years old. This would mean they can extend Klay Thompson and carve out more minutes for Moses Moody, although they’d have to go bargain-hunting for wings with no cap space in a league where wings who can play both sides while bringing some athleticism are paid at a premium. They’d have to moneyball it a bit, which may not be the cleanest way to make it work, but they could still field a pretty good defense if Murray could recall that All-NBA performance he had prior to his injury.
If the Warriors really want to swing for the fences, they could look into a sign-and-trade for Paul George, who has a player option on his contract this season. This would likely mean Klay Thompson is gone to a new contract with a different team, while Andrew Wiggins, Moses Moody, and a few others are members of the Clippers, or whoever facilitates the George signing. PG-13 is getting up there in age, but he’s still got a few years of all-star caliber play left in him since he’s a great shooter, and would be the exact archetype of player it’d make sense to put next to Steph Curry. This move would mean the Warriors are definitive contenders, but would punt on their future entirely in order to maximize what’s left of the Steph/Draymond duo’s window to get another championship.
There are other options in terms of trades, but it would be a matter of offloading Wiggins’ contract, and probably sending Kuminga off as well since he’s by far the most valuable asset the Warriors currently have, and he’s about to be due for what could prove to be a monster of an extension. This brings us back to the question of whether or not attempts to stay relevant are worth disappointments for the rest of Curry’s tenure with the Warriors, and likely starts to bring the question of whether or not this is where he ends his career if there aren’t changes in attempts to win now - an uncomfortable thought and conversation, but one that could be at the forefront of how the front office maneuvers this offseason.
Conclusions
If this truly is the end of the run, it’s been one of the most game-changing and incredible ones we’ve ever seen. The Warriors fielded a strong contender for the greatest team ever assembled on an NBA floor, and the times where they weren’t a juggernaut from 2017 to 2019, they defied expectations - whether it was in 2015 with questions of how far Steph Curry could carry them, to 2022 where everyone thought they had emptied the clip in the Kevin Durant years.
Questioning if it is really the end, however, is something the Warriors decision-makers need to keep thinking about. Steph Curry showed that even as he starts to get up there in age, he has something left and he wants to keep winning. We’ve reached a point in sports where superstars are getting the best possible treatments and other science-backed practices that could extend their career later than they’re used to. Steph’s longevity specifically can’t be taken for granted, as he’s still the undisputed best shooter in the league, whether it’s on-ball or off-ball, off screens or in iso, at 36 years old: There are few people who can guarantee you’re in the mix for a title like Steph Curry can, but in an age of teams with at least 2 guys who are legitimate stars, he can’t do it on his own.
If there’s any indication the window is still open, then the Warriors have to take that leap of faith and capitalize while they still can.
(Photo credit: Tim Warner / Getty Images)