Play-In Preview: Warriors vs. Kings
On the last day of the season, results held for the three teams vying for the 8th seed, and it’s now official: The Golden State Warriors and the Sacramento Kings will meet for a playoff rematch in the play-in tournament as the 10th and 9th seeds, respectively. They’ll get their shot at each other on Tuesday, April 16th.
Warriors-Kings has failed to disappoint from an objective game quality perspective this year, resulting in a 2-2 split for the season series where 3 of the 4 games were decided by only 2 points or less. These are two teams which stylistically stack up better than they did last season, with movement-heavy schemes anchored by excellent passers in the middle in Draymond Green and Domantas Sabonis. Sabonis led the league in both double-doubles and triple-doubles this season, gathering one more than reigning Finals MVP Nikola Jokic while playing every game this season besides one.
The tale of the tape paints these teams as relatively similar since the All-Star break on both sides of the ball: They rank 9th and 10th in offensive rating, with the Kings at 115.3 while the Warriors trail at 115.0. Defensively, Golden State ranks a bit higher at a 110.5 rating, good for 7th, while Sacramento clocks in at 9th with 110.9. Their net rating is the exact same, tying them for 10th in the league overall. The main differences are that the Warriors rebound better, ranking as the top team in the NBA when it comes to rebounds per game, and the Kings take better care of the ball, coming in at 9th while the Dubs are 20th.
It’s easy enough to tell with the eye test that the Warriors are the better defensive team despite these numbers though, especially since bringing rookie center Trayce Jackson-Davis into the starting lineup to pair with Green and Andrew Wiggins. That unit covers every layer of the floor with their personnel, the highlight being TJD’s rim protection which allows Dray to be more of a roamer, a role where he truly excels. Golden State’s also been hotter as of recent, starting to put things together at the right time (outside of a brutal loss to the Pelicans last week week) whereas the Kings have somewhat struggled - the Warriors rank 5th in winning percentage at 65.5% since All-Star weekend, while the Kings are 16th at 53.6%.. Kevon Looney will likely play a major role off the bench given his prior successes against Sabonis, and the complete game he played against the Blazers on the front end of their last back-to-back.
That will be a key matchup to watch, especially since Sabonis has been the Kings’ best player this season, which isn’t shorting De’Aaron Fox’s impressive 26/4/5 averages by any stretch: He’s just been that good. A center being the opposing team’s MVP should theoretically be a problem for the Warriors, who have the shortest average height of any team in the association, but Golden State was able to largely mitigate Sabonis’s impact during the playoffs last season and in their matchups this year. In 4 games against the Warriors in the 2023-2024 season, Sabonis averaged 17 points, 11 rebounds, and 9 assists on 58% true shooting, almost all down across the board from his seasonal 19 points, 13 rebounds, and 8 assists on 63% true shooting. The Dubs have forced him to be a facilitator instead of a scorer and rebounder where possible, which is disruptive of how the Kings want to play on offense.
Aside from Sabonis and Fox (who will give the Warriors trouble no matter what they try to do to contain him), Sacramento’s benefitted greatly from Malik Monk’s explosive scoring off the bench… Scoring they may not have if Monk doesn’t return from his MCL sprain in time for the play-in games. Monk hurt his knee on March 29th with a timetable of at least 4 weeks for recovery, meaning he very likely won’t be back in time for Tuesday’s matchup. Monk hurt the Warriors plenty in last year’s playoffs, playing a large role in why the Kings were able to sustain themselves against Golden State’s offensive runs. His absence has affected Sacramento’s bench production given they’re missing almost 17 a game without him on the floor; it’ll be key for the Warriors to win the battle in the 2nd unit in order to take this game.
The Warriors won’t necessarily be fully healthy, however, as guard Gary Payton II missed the last couple of games with some strain in his left calf. The rest of the roster listed on the injury report outside of Stephen Curry and Draymond Green ended up playing against the Jazz today, with Curry and Green both already essentially ruled out for rest purposes. If the Warriors don’t have GP2, they’ll have one less defensive weapon they can use to try and keep Fox from getting a rhythm. Wiggins has historically done a solid job as the leading point-of-attack man for the Kings guard, but having another man ready to go certainly wouldn’t hurt. It remains to be seen if Payton II will miss the first play-in game, however, as he could easily get his body right between now and the 16th.
While the 10th seed is certainly not an ideal route to the play-in, the Warriors have shown signs of improvement since the all-star break. Steph’s been getting the necessary support from the rest of the cast (particularly from Klay Thompson, who’s bounced back this season in a phenomenal manner) while the defense has stepped up significantly. The Dubs look more and more like the championship team they’re often expected to be, but in a tight Western Conference, they’ll need to reach that next level in order to make some noise. They’ll look to kick into gear with a trip across I-80 to the Golden One Center this week.
(Photo credit: Godofredo A. Vásquez / Associated Press)