Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets: Playoff Preview
It’s poetic that it’s come back to this.
After a wild end to the NBA regular season which saw an overtime loss to the Los Angeles Clippers send them to the play-in, the Warriors took care of business against the Memphis Grizzlies and captured the 7th seed for the Western Conference playoffs. With around 10 games left it was looking like they could have ended up anywhere from 3rd place to 8th place, but recognition that the basketball gods have a sense of humor makes you think anything but a matchup against their most storied playoff foe not named LeBron James was inevitable in retrospect.
In the first season the Houston Rockets beat Golden State since 2020, they managed to do so twice: Once for a spot in the mid-season tournament, and again late after the Jimmy Butler trade. Sunday marks a new chapter in a one-sided postseason history between the two teams, and with plenty of jawing along with a slew of familiar faces from seasons past, this looks to be one of the most entertaining first round matchups there is.
The Tale of the Tape
Since the trade deadline brought Butler to the Warriors, they’ve posted league-bests in several defensive categories (efficiency, rating, turnovers forced, and points off turnovers) and improved both their free throw rate and differential from just short of dead-last to first. The Dubs look like a whole new team, going from hovering around .500 to certified contenders on the back of a hyper-connected defense and an offense no longer carried solely by Steph Curry’s brilliance.
The Rockets this season came out the gates firing like few would expect, rating as one of the NBA’s best defensive teams season-long, and while their go-to guys Alperen Sengun (19 points, 10 boards, and 4 assists a game on 49/23/69 shooting) and Jalen Green (21 points, 4 boards, and 4 assists a game on 42/35/81 shooting) are relatively unproven, they’ve picked up enough contributions from their depth to win the 2nd seed in one of the toughest Wests in recent memory. They’re also headed by former Warriors Finals opponent Ime Udoka, and play a style reminiscent of the Boston Celtics that were vaunted as one of, if not the best defense in league history. This series figures to be a slugfest, with the determinant factor being whose scorers can get theirs better against the varying coverages they’ll face.
How the Warriors Win
Throughout this season, the Rockets have employed tactics that Udoka tried a lot of in 2022: They showed in their last matchup the desire to get the ball out of Steph’s hands, having second-year rising star Amen Thompson stick to the point guard as his sole assignment while throwing endless blitzes whenever the Warriors tried to get Curry free to shoot. With probably two on Curry for a majority of the series, he’ll have to be sharp as a passer, limiting the careless turnovers that he can sometimes be prone to so the Warriors can take advantage of short 4-on-3s.
Arguably more importantly, Jimmy Butler will need to be aggressive like he was against Memphis, getting to the line and matching the physical intensity the Rockets are bound to bring. Should Butler draw enough attention to force Udoka away from the expected gameplan and get Steph freed up, the Dubs can hunt for their slow-footed bigs on the perimeter to get open looks like they typically do into drop coverages. If they can target Sengun specifically to wear him down or play him off entirely, it becomes a lot easier for them to manage on the other end. Defensively, the Warriors have the switching capability and scheme to guard Houston’s limited scoring options: Throwing bodies at both Sengun and Green while challenging their non-shooters to step up is likely the look they’ll go with. A big question for them will be Houston’s size and offensive rebounding acumen, something that will need to be contained as much as possible with extra effort and focus on the glass.
How the Rockets Win
Houston’s two wins came both before the deadline and after the deadline, but their was a key similarity in both: A lack of aggression from a second option and the ability to slow down Steph Curry as a result. The Rockets have the personnel to bother Curry on and off-ball with a few rangy wings that Steph typically has more trouble with, including the aforementioned Thompson who’s been about as good as you can be against him this season. If Houston can contain 30 while limiting Butler’s paint touches while forcing him to make his outside shots, it could turn into a long series for the Warriors unless somebody else steps up.
The Rockets are more athletic and play more physical, so setting the tone early and getting away with as much as the refs will let them is to be expected. Their success will be rooted in whether or not their defense can hold the two-headed dragon of Curry and Butler while getting out in transition where they’re at their best, in addition to capitalizing on second-chance points that they’ll get plenty of as the NBA leaders in rebounds this season.
The Series Prediction
Vegas had the Warriors opening as narrow favorites in this series, and for good reason: The clear two best players in the series are on Golden State’s roster. With them being one of the NBA’s hottest teams, its best defense since Febraury, and familiar not just with this Rockets squad but also Ime Udoka’s defensive tactics, they have edges not typical of a 7th seed. H-Town is a young, hungry team hinging its identity on their athletic defense, but they still lack a proven #1 option and outside of Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams, their guys lack the relevant playoff experience that it’ll take to beat a team that knows as much about winning as Golden State does.
The Dubs beat their play-in demons with an aggressive 38 points from Butler last week, making it clear that Playoff Jimmy has arrived just in time to remind the Rockets who the big brother is in this rivalry. His extra gear gives the Warriors a distinct edge, alongside a stylistic foil to the finesse of Steph Curry that wrecked havoc on Udoka’s Celtics, which Houston has shades of similarity to.
The Golden State Warriors will beat the Houston Rockets in 5 games.
(Photo credit: Tim Warner / Getty Images)