State of the Warriors At The All-Star Break
This hasn’t exactly been the dream season in San Francisco.
The Warriors finished off their final stretch of the schedule prior to the All-Star Break at two wins and three losses. They dropped winnable games against the Trail Blazers and Lakers, but tonight’s game against the Clippers looked less like the others: They simply didn’t have the tools to get it done despite some excellent late-game effort.
The blueprint for Golden State in the past has been late-game execution. Where they’ve thrived in prior seasons in closing out games in dominant fashion as early as the 3rd quarter, they’ve been blowing leads left and right. There are a couple reasons for this, and fatigue is certainly a factor given the thinned-out rotation, but a lot of it is effort and decision-making on both sides of the ball, something which hasn’t been nearly as much an issue until the 2022-2023 year.
There’s also the impending issue of their open roster spot. With the depth of the guard rotation, Ty Jerome (who has earned the spot) deserves a contract conversion but likely won’t get it, and Anthony Lamb has been unplayable in stretches and can’t actually be a factor the team can rely on; he’s been so awful defensively that the marginal amount of spacing and offensive capability he brings is absolutely not worth the tradeoff. A defense-first big wing or center should help to shore up some of the glaring roster issues, at least in short stretches.
As a result of their issues, the Warriors enter this much-needed 9 day break described exactly as their stats would indicate: Mid-tier.
The biggest problems, given Steph has spent so many games out of commission and is centric to the offense in every way, are on the defensive end. The Warriors have the personnel, but there are some notable holes from guys who get serious minutes. Jordan Poole’s effort has revved up a bit but he still makes a decent number of mistakes. Jonathan Kuminga has been an ace in some games, but he has consistency issues (which were on display in flashes during this last stretch of games). And Lamb, who got 25 minutes in a game where two star wings were the Dubs’ main concern, is completely inept on that side of the ball in terms of effort and awareness.
Draymond Green, as vocal a leader as ever, knocked the team’s desire to defend at a high level in his postgame media time tonight. If there’s one guy who you have to listen to when he talks about defense, it’s Dray, and what he had to say speaks volumes about why the Warriors are struggling.
“Our defense isn’t very good” Green told the media. “It has to come from within… We just have to do it to win and we haven’t.”
The Warriors made an effort to upgrade their defensive potential at the trade deadline, but a mischaracterization of Gary Payton II’s injury from the Portland medical staff leaves that acquisition out for a few weeks to get right. A major reason that they’ve hovered around .500 for so long is that the Warriors have been unable to lock in defensively, and have let strong leads slip away especially late. GP2 will be key moving forward given he knows the system and adds excellent dimensions as a cutter and dunker in addition to his lockdown defense, but he needs to get healthy first.
Their defensive prowess last season led to forcing missed shots (2nd in opponent EFG%) and turnovers (7th in opponent TO%), in turn leading to strong transition offense (1.12 points per possession on 62.3 EFG%) which is a characteristic that successful Golden State units have capitalized on. They’ve been a three-heavy team and their half-court offense has always been predicated on jump-shooting, but we’re now seeing that their lack of strong rim pressure come back to bite them with a less-efficient transition attack to disguise that shortcoming.
The biggest key for the Warriors in the final length of the season will be their defensive effort. It’s been a hallmark of how they’ve won games for the entirety of their dynasty, especially with a variety of scorers who can get hot quick. The other biggest key will, as unfair as it is to ask at this point, be squarely on Steph Curry. The two-time MVP is going to have his work cut out for him and he’s going to have to carry this team to the finish line if they want to have a chance at winning the title again.
Curry’s play this year has been MVP-esque, and hopefully some much-deserved rest will allow him to have another torrential Spring to improve on an already-elite season. His presence on the court affects the shot qualities (and shot selection) of both Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole, another major area where the Warriors are hurting. Not to mention, he’s one of the best scorers individually this game has ever seen: His presence bends defensive schemes in ways that Steve Kerr can capitalize on strategically, which will improve the offense.
Things are not looking great, however. After tonight’s stretch, the Warriors are still stuck in the 9th seed. The West is going to start to separate itself with a ton of in-conference matchups coming in the last 24 games of the season. At the end of day, the team needs to win games and start to get into good habits when it comes to closing things out late.
To finish the regular season strong, they need to do a few things:
1) Stick to the offensive process and don’t go killshot-hunting from three to shut the door on teams who are mounting comebacks.
2) Lock in and take a metric ton more pride on the defensive end.
3) Don’t punch down on lesser teams, and treat every game like it’s a make-or-break, because this late in the year any one of them may be a deciding factor.
We’ve got 9 days before the return of Warriors basketball, and nobody on the squad will be participating in the All-Star break distractions. How they attack this week-and-change to improve, and whether they come out swinging afterwards, will show whether or not they’ve got the willpower for another championship run in them.
(Photo credit: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)