The Klay Thompson Slump Phenomenon

It’s here a little earlier than expected, but Klay Thompson’s yearly slump is upon us once again. It seems to be a consistent occurrence year-to-year that, for a few weeks, Thompson has a shooting slump which never fails to make Warriors fans panic.

This time’s a little different. But not for the reason you’re probably thinking.

Something that’s been attributed to Klay after some poor shot selection last season has been his tendency to force bad looks when there’s a better play somewhere else. While that was certainly true in his first full year back, things have changed: He’s been doing a bit more everywhere else, and still making an impact.

A strength of Thompson’s has been his rebounding lately, and while he is of course past now two major lower-body ligament surgeries which would leave even the best of athletes debilitated, last season saw him post a career-high in rebounds at 4.1 a game, and it wouldn’t take one offseason full of on-court work to have lost the athletic pop he’s shown he’s still got. He’s also grabbing just over half an offensive rebound a game to tie his career-high average which he also set last season, showing he’s finding other ways to contribute even if the numbers aren’t jumping off the stat sheet.

Defensively, Thompson’s lost a bit of a step since the injuries. Putting him on quick guards and primary scoring options has become less of a feasible option, but at 6’6 he still has both the strength, height, and IQ of the All-Defense-calibre player he’s been since the first title run, which allows him to be a bit more versatile in the matchup category. Thompson still guards sources of offense that are often playing on the wing as secondary scorers or playmakers. The problem has mostly been that the 3-guard lineups which Steve Kerr has come to love have him taking assignments that don’t fit his capabilities; Nevertheless, his effort and skillset are there, and his impact has flashes of a bright spot on the tape for lineups that can look a bit lost.

Even as a playmaker, something that hasn’t been an expectation of him since he was drafted, he’s improved. Klay’s making the right reads when defenses blitz him, and he’s not a stellar ball-handler (nor should he be, as asking him to suddenly become one in his 11th season despite never doing so before is a far cry from reasonable) but he can hold is own if he keeps things simple. Making the pass to set up the assist is often just as valuable as the assist itself, and it’s a microskill that Thompson’s been able to add to his game this season while limiting unforced turnovers.

If there’s one critique with how Thompson’s been playing outside of converting his usual looks, it’s that he over-dribbles, which hadn’t been much of an issue before his return. He’s always been at his best when he doesn’t have to take too many dribbles to get into his shots or try to create for himself on the perimeter, but with no Jordan Poole, the Dubs don’t have a secondary shot creator not named Steph Curry, and they’ve leaned on him to try and generate those looks himself. This can lead to a lot of over-complications when left to his own devices, but despite his struggles with getting separation, he’s been making the right reads more and more often and he’s even made a few of the tough buckets we’ve come to know he can hit.

The bottom line is that the shot will fall. Klay’s only season shooting less than 40% from three was the shortened one during the 2022 title run, where he hit 38.5% instead. Shooters don’t just forget how to shoot, sometimes they just slump. Curry did as much in 2022, where he was posting some of the worst shooting games of his career, and he still broke out for multiple signature performances in the playoffs on the way to his first Finals MVP.

Just one season ago, Klay opened the year with more shot attempts than he had total points through 12 games; He ended the season as the league leader in 3s on 41% shooting from outside, and was a big reason the Warriors were able to stay in the playoff race despite Steph missing so much time. In 2022, he was averaging 16 points per game on 37% from three for the first two months of his return; he bumped that percentage up a point and a half while finishing with another 20 PPG season. We’ve seen this before, and it has absolutely always gotten better.

Calls to trade Thompson would diminish a lot of what he’s brought to a team that’s struggling across the board, and while he does have to return to at least average for the team to reach their ceiling, it’s not like this is a new problem: His shooting is his greatest weapon, so when the shot doesn’t fall it’s easy to scapegoat him, which has been done multiple times in the past despite him bouncing back every time. A degree of accountability when it comes to Klay is fair in its entirety - this team needs him to be much better as both a shooter and scorer to win - but removing him from the equation is far from the answer to solving those problems.

(Photo credit: NBAE / Getty Images)