An Early Look James Wiseman's Ceiling for the 2022-2023 Season
Warriors basketball is finally back. At 3am Pacific time last night, Golden State tipped off against the Washington Wizards as a part of the NBA’s Japan Games, a slew of contests in Japan to help grow the game globally. While it wasn’t the greatest basketball ever played and the jet lag on both teams was pretty apparent, we did get to see some interesting peaks into the potential future of the season.
The most interesting of the players we need to see a bit more from to get a good idea about them? James Wiseman. Big Jim had himself a game, posting 20 points and 9 boards on 8-for-11 shooting. He tallied on a block as well, and limited both his turnovers and fouling tendencies (which are noted areas he's needed to improve in). The game showed what seems to be an ideal role for Wiseman, mostly operating as the roll man and a more traditional big despite his skillset:
A vertical threat adds a new element to the Warriors offense that they didn’t have much out of their PnR sets last season. While Gary Payton II made some bank off being a 6’3 lob threat from backdoor and off-ball cuts, most dump-off plays from drives and traditional thread passes to a roller ended with layups because of Kevon Looney’s size and lack of leaping ability. Looney certainly got the job done, but Wiseman’s athleticism and height at over 7 feet tall give lead guards like Steph Curry and Jordan Poole more room to get creative with their deliveries.
While Wiseman did a lot of damage out of sets as a play-finisher and dunker, he also showed some flashes of self-creation out of the post. His full highlights can be found here:
He looked more polished offensively, benefitting from the simplification of his role. That’s been the name of the game since his rookie debut, and it seems like it could pay dividends over the course of the season. He looks far more comfortable out there, setting solid screens and timing his rolls to the basket well relative to the position of his defender. He also had a pretty solid game defensively, maintaining a presence in the paint and even being able to step out onto more mobile bigs like Kristaps Porzingis.
So where does this game project James Wiseman’s ceiling for this season? He’s more than likely not going to average 20 points and 10 rebounds, as much as we’d all like to see that. If he can get in the ballpark of 9-10 points and 6-7 rebounds, then it should be considered just as much a success. Now he could end up with some outstanding numbers as the season goes on, but as mentioned prior, the Warriors just need him to play a simple role: The rest will come later.
There is an interesting scenario where Wiseman is so successful, however, that he ends up as the league’s Most Improved Player. Most odds trackers have him at around +5000, which isn’t a great outlook, but he’s in a position where he could make that happen after his various injuries. A lot of people were quick to write him off despite showing flashes that indicated greatness. In order to become a possible MIP candidate, we’d probably have to see something like 16 points per game, 9 boards per game, 1 block per game, and some efficient stats from the field in the mid-high 50s for shooting percentage - and those are all probably the minimums. Breakout players are becoming more and more common in the league, so he’d really have to set himself apart in order to claim an award like that in his third season.
It’s more reasonable to expect a gradual leap, but if he’s going to keep throwing down dunks and staying sharp on both ends of the floor, it’s really up to him to make that happen. Preseason generally means guys won’t get as much run later on if they’re getting it now, but it’s also a time for players to show that they belong not just on the roster, but in the rotation. With the return of veteran presence Andre Iguodala and the environment in the locker room created by the Warriors’ winning core, seeing Big Jim mature a bit would likely contribute just as much to more minutes as his actual gameplay. In terms of a ceiling, he could develop into a starter with the right circumstances (although Kerr may revert to Looney as the first center up in the playoffs should that happen, for nothing else but experience), but either way it seems like his spot in the rotation is cemented; it’s just a question of how much they’ll utilize him. And if they do, he could very well lock in his spot as the next man up of the Warriors’ future all-stars.
(Photo credit: Eugene Hoshiko / Associated Press)