Draymond Green and the Contract Year Theory
The buzz of the Warriors offseason has been, as expected, all about the money. Golden State is amongst the league’s top payrolls, and it’s looking like they’re going to need a miracle to evade an inevitable reality where one of Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, or Jordan Poole is gone. To nobody’s surprise, this was one of media day’s most prevalent topics.
While the NBA’s rules punishing teams for growing players via the draft instead of subscribing to now-common “sign a superteam” tactics are something that requires a broader discussion, the situation currently facing the Warriors with three pending contract extensions for key players isn’t going to be helped by a rule change that could go into effect after the 2023-2024 season when a new collective bargaining agreement has to be struck. And of the three guys who are pending on a payday, there’s one amongst them who - characteristically, of course - has been outspoken and real on his situation instead of just giving rehearsed and vague answers.
Here’s a full soundbite from Draymond Green via The Athletic’s Anthony Slater on his contract situation:
There’s a lot about “contract year” going on with Green’s answer, which could lead to reasonable expectation that he’s going to opt out of the last year of his contract and test the market if the Warriors can’t get a deal done before then. Players have often showed out in seasons where they’re eligible to make some more money, so if Dray’s comments are something he follows up on (which should be the real expectation), then he’ll come out the gates swinging. Jordan Poole is the only one of the extension-eligible players with a deadline: October 18th, because he’ll be looking at an extension on his rookie contract. Because the decisions on Draymond’s contract don’t have a cap, this will likely be an all-season-long sort of storyline, and it could go right down to the wire in the spring.
That kind of thinking is a bit hasty, however. Green’s contract history has been a strange one, as he was a bench player until Steve Kerr put him in the starting lineup, where he evolved into the monster of a defender and offensive hub that he is today. That also happened to be a contract year for him, the 2014-2015 season when the Warriors dynasty in the modern era began. Statistically, it was one of his best years (although it doesn’t quite compare to 2015-2016 when the team won 73 games). He was paid again after a solid 2018-2019 season, just after injuries derailed the Kevin Durant era of the Warriors from three-peating. While it wasn’t his best year statistically (it may actually have been his worst of that 5-season stretch), he was still a key component to the team’s success especially on defense, and it makes sense why he got the contract he was looking for.
Since signing that contract, Green has declined somewhat as a threat on offense. His free throw percentage has improved, but other than that, he’s been more timid as a scorer and less efficient as a result. There are two things, however, which may warrant a maximum payday for him: His defensive prowess and his playmaking aptitude. Green averaged a career-high 9 assists a game in 2020-2021, and captained the Warriors defense to a tie for the league’s best rating last season with the Boston Celtics, who themselves were led by the Defensive Player of the Year, Marcus Smart.
In essence, this past season showed who Draymond Green is at his purest form as a basketball player: He’s a game savant who can put his teammates in the best positions to succeed, while also making it incredibly difficult on the other end for the opponents. He is not, however, somebody who you have to bother closing out on… which is a problem unless one of James Wiseman or Kevon Looney can drill from downtown this year, or Draymond can recover the form that made him a 38% shooter from the outside. Given that he’s historically stepped up in contract years for the most part, it’s entirely possible we see that edition of Green yet again. Although, with a revitalized Klay Thompson and firecracker-scorer Jordan Poole in the backcourt alongside the league’s best player to cover up any offensive holes there may be from Dray’s presence, it’s hard to tell if that’d be a necessity. What it could do is affect his market, as there are a lot of teams that could use his abilities, but may not have the necessary strength to cover up the weaknesses.
Draymond Green has the opportunity to look like he’s worth every penny this year once again, as a vital part of the Warriors’ victory machine. In a season where Green is looking to prove himself once again, there’s going to be an extra-energized competitive spirit in his play; that would mean this situation has both costs and benefits. The costs, of course, are that it makes the contract situation that much more difficult. The benefits? Golden State could be championship-bound in convincing fashion once again. Regardless, there is no certainty on what may happen yet, but so long as Draymond Green is a Warrior this season, the Dubs will be once again, a very tough out.
(Photo credit: Jeff Chiu / Associated Press)