Breaking Down Jordan Poole's Scoring Torrent
Through the month of March, the Warriors appeared to hit a wall. The lack of continuity on the team with Klay Thompson sitting a few games, plus Draymond Green missing the whole first half of the month and Steph Curry missing the whole second half, has been noticeable. It’s been a struggle to find consistency… except for in one spot.
Jordan Poole recorded his 17th straight 20-point game this week against the Kings, a scoring streak the length of which has only been done by two Warriors before him: Curry and Kevin Durant. He’s been a recent revelation both late last season and now later this season, replacing streaky play with consistent offensive generation. With his excellent breakout being a huge key for the Warriors to succeed in the playoffs, we’ll break down how he got so many buckets in the month of March.
While he’s taken on some more playmaking duties, the focal point of Poole’s leap has been his scoring. On the season, he’s averaging 18 points per game. This has been largely propped up by his 25ppg average through last month, where he’s been on an absolute heater. Poole shot 49% from the field overall, a scorching 44% (on 9 attempts per contest) from three, and 89% from the free throw line. This was good for a true shooting percentage of 65%, a strong combination of efficiency and volume that is reminiscent of another home-grown Warriors guard.
While his mid-range shooting has been rather lackluster over this stretch (only making 40% of his shots in that zone), his percentages are buoyed largely by his rim pressure. In the restricted area, JP made 66% of his attempts at the rim, including an absurd 71% on finger-roll layups. Poole’s length, a 6’7 wingspan while standing at 6’4, allows him to extend past shot-blockers effectively, and when he can burn his man off the dribble constantly, it puts pressure on help side defenders to either contest the shot or play the dump-off. Either way, Poole ends up with a bucket or an assist.
From the outside, Poole’s March torrent came mostly from the top of the arc. He shot well in the corners, but it was above the break where he made most of his money, cashing in 43% of his treys in that zone specifically. With a step-back that wasn’t as reliable as his mentor Steph’s generally is , it was the threat of his drive that really allowed him to create space. A quick first step and deceptive speed changes helped JP get to his pull-up jumper, which was remarkably effective from downtown at 55%. His self-created shots forced defenses to start respecting his jumper and to play him tighter, which opened up a lot of space for his teammates to operate.
Why is it so important for defenders to tag him off-ball? Because he’s drilling any open shots he gets. On attempts considered “Open” and “Wide Open”, Poole is ripping 44% of his threes, specifically 50% of those considered “Wide Open”. He’s shooting 43% from the arc in catch-and-shoot scenarios too. The best way to establish rhythm is by hitting open shots, and Jordan seems to be walking proof of that right now.
How does he compare to some of the NBA’s other stars in his scoring efficacy, however? Specifically looking at two other 3rd-year guards who are considered their teams’ lead guards, he stacks up pretty well. Darius Garland is currently averaging 21 points per game on 46/39/89 splits. Poole’s recent burst of efficiency seems to have him as a better scorer, although in fairness to Garland, the Cavaliers also need their point guard to run the offense, which he’s done very well to the tune of just under 9 assists per game. DG is not as effective in the paint, shooting only 57% in the restricted area despite having a very solid floater. His size is likely a factor here. To Garland’s credit, his best off-the-dribble shot from the outside - his stepback - is hitting at a 50% clip. It’s impressive, but not quite Poole’s pull-up.
Ja Morant has been considered an MVP candidate this season by some. The Grizzlies’ record without Ja says otherwise to a certain degree, but there’s no denying that Morant has taken his game up a notch. He’s averaging 27 points per game on 49/34/76 shooting splits, which hasn’t been as efficient as Poole’s recent stretch, but much like Garland, he’s also his team’s primary playmaker. Ja’s upgraded his status as a shooter from “leave him open” to “we’ll give him that if we have to” since he entered the league, and as a result, his off-the-dribble stats aren’t too hot (both his stepback and pull-up clock in at 31% and 35% respectively). Morant definitely makes most of his money with his rim pressure, but even then, he’s only shooting 1% better than JP in the restricted area. A slightly higher volume and a hit to his efficiency place them on similar scales at this rate.
None of these comparisons are meant to denigrate what Morant and Garland have done, but instead highlight how excellent Poole has been. Even when you compare his numbers in March to something like Steph Curry last season, his stats jump out a little more in some regards. Jordan is sort of an inversion of Steph’s game, too: While the threat of Steph’s jumper allows him to get past defenders with ease and go to the hoop or make a play, Poole’s driving and finishing keep anyone checking him on their heels, allowing him to pull up and wreck with his three-ball.
Poole has taken another leap, and just in time for the playoffs. His increased efficiency through March and his consistency moving forward will be things to note. Should he keep the stellar play up into the postseason, the Warriors will boast an offense with three explosive scorers - who they all drafted, it should be noted - with incredible spacing and a defensive lineup spearheaded by one of the best defenders to ever lace them up. JP’s improvements have propelled the Warriors’ odds moving forward, and the storm of buckets he cooked up in March is indicative not only that he can do it now, but that he’s still got room to get even better as his career progresses.
(Photo credit: Sam Forencich / Getty Images)