The Route Through the Playoffs to a Warriors Title
It’s been a long season. Normally, a 50-win team would be a praised for excellent play in a season full of struggles. Of course, the culture surrounding the Warriors is all about the rings, so when things don’t look perfect, people will be quick to point it out.
With that said, it’s impressive this team pulled out 50 wins. A lack of continuity, with Klay Thompson, Steph Curry, and Draymond Green all playing together in only one win, has been a major sticking point, but as has long-season lackadaisical attitudes. This team always has another gear in the playoffs, and it seems like they’ll be able to kick into it regardless of how they finish out this regular season, but it’s always a little more reassuring to see consistent performance.
Issues aside, the Warriors are currently sitting at 3rd in the West, and it looks like there isn’t really a team in the playoffs that can beat them. With a win tonight against New Orleans or a Mavericks loss against the Spurs, the Warriors officially clinch that position. Where there were two potential matchup paths that lead them to the Finals, there appears to be high odds it boils down to one, and it’s the one most predicted would be the case.
The first round matchup has yet to be determined. As it stands now, the Golden State would face the Denver Nuggets and likely MVP Nikola Jokic. This is not the ideal situation - or at least it wouldn’t be, if Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. were playing. The Nuggets are a little short-handed, and despite owning the season series, there’s plenty of room to say those games were a little flukey. The Warriors will be at full strength this time, and lapses like they suffered against Denver prior will be less and less common.
The other scenario is the Utah Jazz losing out. With a game against the Portal Trailblazers’ G-League team (if they had one) tonight, it’s likely Utah remains in the 5th seed and thus will avoid the Warriors in the first round. If they do somehow manage to bungle this, though, they’d be the easiest first-round opponent the Warriors could hope for. They’re a solid basketball team, but Donovan Mitchell can’t carry that entire offense, and Rudy Gobert is often exposed for how immobile on the perimeter he is against the Warriors. This is a team that you cannot play drop-coverages against in pick-and-roll situation, and Gobert exclusively plays drop-coverage. The footage is widely available: The Dubs hunt him on switches to get open looks from the outside, and it tends to work very well.
Regardless of the first round matchup, the next two rounds should have clear opponents: The Memphis Grizzlies in the West Semi-Finals, and the Phoenix Suns in the Conference Finals. Memphis seems to be the more problematic of these two teams despite Phoenix owning the league’s best record and the versatility to put up a fight. The Grizzlies get up big-time for games against the Warriors, and Ja Morant presents a unique matchup issue. Steph Curry also has a tendency to torch the Grizzlies, averaging 38 points per game against them over the last two seasons, so it will come down to the rest of the team. Despite the Grizzlies being able to go as far as 12 players deep in the rotation, they don’t have the same firepower or defensive prowess the Warriors do, and if it comes down to a shootout, Golden State’s odds look a little better. The Phoenix Suns are weird, however. This team, on paper, is a bad matchup for the Warriors.
Or at least, they were, before Jordan Poole.
Poole is widely-considered the X-factor in the playoffs in general for them, but in a series against the Suns, he will be especially importance. The Suns have a lot of defensive versatility and will have that on full display. However, Steph Curry’s return means they’ll have to stick lauded wing defender and possible DPoY-candidate Mikal Bridges on him, and while Bridges has the length and foot speed to bother Steph in ways most defenders can’t, having the defense’s full attention has a lot of benefits for Poole, Thompson, and guys like Andrew Wiggins who can hit their open shots. Steph’s gravity will win them this series in tandem with the team’s defense, which has shown their ability to put Suns star Devin Booker in jail. Despite a matchup problem with Deandre Ayton and long-time Warriors villain Chris Paul’s presence, Golden State should be able to take on this team.
The NBA Finals are a bit of a mystery, and will likely remain so for awhile. There isn’t a clear favorite outside of the Milwaukee Bucks to make the Finals, but they may be looking at a first-round battle with the Brooklyn Nets, who are a play-in team now due to some unfortunate early-season circumstances. Milwaukee is probably the worst matchup for the Warriors in the entire playoff field, with switchable wing defenders and an unstoppable force in Giannis Antetokounmpo that can will games to victory. It will be interesting to see how the Warriors deal with Giannis should this be the Finals matchup, and what Draymond Green will be able to do against him. Shut him down, and Green may be undisputed as the best defender ever.
With a lot of possible scenarios, it’s hard to make predictions, but this is the most likely route. The Warriors will probably end up going through Denver, Memphis, Phoenix, and finally Milwaukee on their run. There’s still some questions and uncertainty about this team, but at full strength, the biggest one is can anyone actually beat them assuming the chemistry is there? You’d be hard to find someone who knows enough about basketball and has a neutral-enough opinion to answer that honestly.
All that needs to be said is that the Warriors need to find the spot between confidence and cockiness going into these playoffs. They cannot rest on their laurels and play bored basketball before kicking it up a notch. Bad habits have to go away, and a lot of these matchups will rely on execution across the playoff roster. This will be the true test to see if the Warriors aiming to copy the Spurs’ model of continued success despite building a strong youth movement.
(Photo credit: Jed Jacobsohn / AP Photo)