Diagnosing the Warriors' Recent Downturn
The Golden State Warriors have been disappointing lately. It’s a bit obnoxious and spoiled to say that a team in the 2nd seed in the Western Conference (and the 2nd best record in the entire NBA) is disappointing, but for a franchise that has enjoyed so much success at such high levels, the bar tends to be higher on expectations.
While nobody is expecting the Warriors to “pitch perfect games” every night they play, the team is 2-7 in their last 9 games. Despite Stephen Curry returning (somewhat) to his former self after a miserable shooting stretch, there have been a lot of winnable games that were dropped late for a myriad of reasons. There’s plenty of opinions about what the issue is - coaching, consistency, some of the more obvious scapegoats are all thrown out there - but in order to really see what’s going on here, it requires a bit broader perspective. So let’s break it down:
Is It Coaching Issues?
The Lakers love this one, as do most Warriors fans too at this point. Steve Kerr is sort of trending towards Frank Vogel territory in terms of how he’s viewed. Some people even think he’s just another Luke Walton (the post-Warriors rendition, of course). There’s plenty left to be desired from Kerr’s inconsistent rotations, especially because he does deserve some blame. His rotations have been very inconsistent, he’s not feeling out games in the moment and relying too much on the broader gameflow which doesn’t provide accurate assessments all the time, and probably most importantly, he disrupted a lot of Steph’s rhythm with how his minutes spreads have changed. These are all issues, but to say all that and then say it’s the root of the problem is downright ignorant and reductionist. When the going gets tough, you have to adapt to adversity, and there’s been a lot of adversity in his way recently to the point where it’d be irresponsible, even, to square the blame solely on him.
Is It the Role Players?
Jordan Poole has been slumping honestly since he was moved to the bench, as his numbers and efficiency are better as a starter this season. Andrew Wiggins has been hot and cold just like he was last season. Damion Lee had a couple good games and is now treated as a golden boy. Jonathan Kuminga still can’t make free throws consistently. These are all clear issues, and despite them having good games while guys like Kevon Looney are stepping up, the consistency just isn’t there. It’s not even a rhythm or rotation issue: It seems like it’s pure mental, like the team is coasting as it did in the KD days. Guys aren’t communicating as well on defense, aren’t moving the ball to the right spots as much on offense, it all just seems very lax. But this on-off execution isn’t the reason the team is falling a bit right now. Players are getting more minutes than they probably should and are being asked to step into roles they aren’t used to by necessity.
Is It the Stars?
Klay Thompson and Steph Curry are the greatest backcourt in basketball history. There shouldn’t be a debate about that. But in some ways, it feels like they’ve switched their roles a bit from what has worked so well for them. Klay’s return has him taking shots he was normally good about selecting carefully. It’s obvious he’s missed hooping for the past 2 seasons, but his volume increases and playing sort of around the offense instead of within it is affecting both him and the team. Curry, on the opposite side, is playing passive. He’s driving less and shooting less off the drive when he does go to the hoop, which is a huge part of what made his game so deadly last season. He’s not being aggressive, having games like tonight against Dallas where he’s not shooting at all in the 4th because he’s settling too much instead of getting his like everyone knows he can. It’s almost like he’s coasting too much. But are either of these guys the reason the team is sliding? You’d have to be nuts to say that the Splash Brothers are shooting the Warriors out of games. They’re playing a different dynamic between them which affects how they win, but it doesn’t move the needle enough to pin it as the sole reason.
So What IS the Reason?
Why are Kerr’s adjustments so inconsistent? Why are role guys stepping into roles they shouldn’t be playing? Why is Steph coasting and Klay trying to do too much? The answer is really, really simple and far too overlooked: Injuries.
Read that again. And then maybe a couple times more just so it’s fresh in your mind.
The Warriors have not played a single, actual basketball game with their vaunted core. Draymond Green’s injury has affected Steph’s feel for his responsibility, making him play into more of a playmaking role. Andre Iguodala and Otto Porter Jr. have not played every game, resting for load management and injury issues which has forced other guys like Damion Lee and Juan Toscano-Anderson into roles they just aren’t that ready for. And the inconsistency of when these guys are available together has been a major strain on the coaching staff’s ability to have consistent gameplans.
While all of these issues listed above are factors in the recent skid the Dubs are having, the panic button has no reason to be pressed yet. There is light at the end of the tunnel, and the team’s ability to win in the playoffs is more important. The biggest concern is that these injuries will cause guys to develop bad habits about it just being the regular season, which is why it’s good to constantly hear about injury updates even for guys like James Wiseman.
In Conclusion
It’s time to stop shifting blame to whoever makes the wrong choice on a given night. In the grand scheme of the season, the Golden State Warriors are still one of the best teams in the NBA. They’re one of the few with a legit chance to win the title. They’ve played other top teams well when healthy, and they’re missing key players (especially Draymond Green) that are core to their franchise identity. To continuously call out any of the above reasons and say they’re the root causes of what’s been going wrong? That just shows which years you really started to put your faith into this team. It’d be nice to win a few games and feel a little better, but there’s no reason to cry doom or constantly clamor for major personnel changes (see: “Fire Steve Kerr” and “we need a buy-out center”). For the Warriors, the real tests will come when the squad is healthy.
(Photo credit: Eric Espada / Getty Images)