The Numbers on Stephen Curry's Recent 4th Quarter Success

There’s always been a strange narrative surrounding Stephen Curry: He’s not clutch. There’s a metric ton of evidence to the contrary, of course. Steph has hit the most game-winners since 2013 with 8, despite only nailing one walk-off buzzer-beater in his career a few weeks ago against the Rockets. That doesn’t count the daggers he hits when his team is up, or the go-ahead shots he makes to put his team in positions to win.

While his stats in the 4th quarter this season haven’t been as up-to-par because of his shooting slump, his last 10 games paint a different picture of the 2x MVP and 3x champ that shows what he’s all about. Through the full course of the season, Steph has scored 6.6ppg on 44% from the field, 36% on threes, and 88% on free throws, which are pretty good stats given his lack of shot-making. His last 10 games, however, he’s scored 8.2ppg on 58/47/94. Those are pretty incredible numbers for anyone. The Dubs are 6-4 in that timeframe, but there’s a lot of variables which play into those losses. Steph isn’t one of those variables.

This was the story last season, as he scored 7ppg on 49/42/94 through the whole of the 2020-2021 stretch. The team certainly needed him, and while they still do now, it’s not nearly as high of a demand for him to be the sole reason the Warriors win. Improvements from role players and even some starters such as Andrew Wiggins, plus the return of Klay Thompson, has taken a large weight off Curry’s shoulders.

The Warriors have been reliant on their superstar to carry them to victory, and the numbers show that the team goes as he goes. In wins, Curry’s number are 7ppg on 50/42/86. Those are pretty solid. In losses, however, his 4th quarter stats are 5ppg on 31/22/90. The split isn’t quite as drastic in wins versus losses through the last 10, and Steph has been torching teams whether it’s a win or a loss.

Steph isn’t having the MVP campaign a lot of people thought he would. He’s a big reason the team is winning, but his counting stats don’t measure up to the other candidates like Nikola Jokic or Joel Embiid. The story was the same last year… and then we had April. After the All-Star Break, Steph went ballistic, averaging 37 points per game and putting up almost 100 threes through the whole month.

In that month, Steph was the NBA’s undisputed 4th quarter king. He scored a hair under 9ppg on 52/46/89 despite only playing 6 and a half minutes, which is the lowest in the top 15 of 4th quarter scorers from April. The Warriors would go on to lose in the play-in games despite electric performances from Steph in both, but it was a season for the ages.

This is likely indicative of what’s to come. It may not be the incredible barrage of last season’s post-ASB stretch because that would be an unrealistic expectation, but it’s a common theme throughout both Steph’s career and the Warriors’ runs since 2015 that the team looks incredibly sharp. Draymond Green should be returning soon, as should James Wiseman which will bolster the team’s platoon capabilities and give Steph some time to focus more on his scoring.

Could Steph make a late-season push for the award? If the Warriors keep to their winning ways and Steph continues to find consistency to carry them there, then he’ll probably end up as the favorite. The Dubs have a better record than teams the other leading candidates are on, and an improvement in the normal counting stats would likely give him a more visible case. One thing’s for sure though: Steph Curry’s 4th quarter scoring this season should keep him in that conversation regardless, because the Warriors don’t win a lot of those games without him.

(Photo credit: Danny Bolinger / Getty Images)