Predicting the Western Conference Playoff Picture

Heading into the All-Star Break, playoff matchups are beginning to take shape. The NBA’s new play-in format has spiced things up a little, especially given that the 7th and 8th seeds will only be determined by the play-in. If the Warriors hold onto a top-2 seed, then one of those teams will be their first matchup.

There’s a lot to be accounted for, but generally, big mix-ups in the standings are not something that happen this late in the season, at least around the top. The conference is relatively separate in terms of win totals right now, so that would be even more true for the guaranteed playoff spots. Here’s my prediction for the top 10 seeds in the West:

1) Suns
2) Warriors
3) Grizzlies
4) Mavericks
5) Jazz
6) Nuggets
7) Lakers
8) Timberwolves
9) Clippers
10) Spurs

(It should be noted that I am not, nor do I claim to be, an expert).

The play-in teams, if this is how the list ends, would be the Wolves, Lakers, Clippers, and Spurs. As far as the play-in goes, my best prediction is that the Lakers will win against the Wolves (if Anthony Davis is healthy), taking the 7th seed. The Clippers will beat the Spurs to compete for the 8th seed, and then the Clippers (hopefully rejuvenated by Paul George) will end up beating Minnesota to get in.

This would leave the Lakers and the Warriors as a first-round matchup. There’s a lot of variables that go into this prediction, however. If Anthony Davis is not fully healthy, then the Wolves would likely win the 7th seed, and the Clippers would still slide into the 8th. It could happen anyway, but the Wolves having such a young, inexperienced core likely won’t do them many favors against LeBron James in the playoffs. Assuming the Clippers get healthy and Paul George returns to play relatively soon, they could maintain a higher seed and even get the 7th seed.

That leaves essentially three first-round matchups for the Warriors, variable-dependent: The Wolves, the Lakers, or the Clippers.

Ironically enough, the Wolves may be the worst matchup of the three early-on. Their wing defense and size creates a lot of mismatches for the Dubs, and they’ve played the team well through their season matchups so far. They wouldn’t beat the Warriors in a 7-game series, however, as the Dubs’ greater playoff experience and veteran presence will likely keep them at bay. I’d expect a 5-game series,.

The Clippers have a tendency to play the Warriors well. With Paul George playing, they’re even more of a threat given their wing depth and a primary scorer. Reggie Jackson came up huge for them in the playoffs last year and likely will again, but there’s just something about the Clips that pissed Steph Curry off. This series would probably end up going to 6 or even 7, but once again, the Warriors match up pretty well against LAC.

The Lakers are a wildcard, mostly because they’re a pretty bad team, but LeBron James is still playing for them. The biggest question mark is obviously Anthony Davis. Regardless, it’s effectively hilarious the Lakers are a play-in team almost guaranteed despite James’ best efforts, and the Warriors still play them well at full-strength. The play-in last season, where the Lakers were arguably better, was determined by a last-second shot and some questionable foul-calling. The Warriors are deeper this year. They’ll win this series in 5 if they play it.

(Photo credit: Tim Warner / Getty Images)