How Herro's Extension Affects the Market for Jordan Poole
Let’s get the obvious out of the way: Jordan Poole is a very good basketball player and will deserve whatever he gets paid this year. In just his third season, he has emerged from one of the alleged “worst in the league” to a valuable asset who could be hunting for a max contract. The recent buzz surrounding extensions for a couple of Warriors guys have all been important to listen to, but Poole’s has a deadline, making it likely the one we’ll hear about first.
Unfortunately for Golden State, it’s not great timing to hear what’s going on in Miami with a player in a similar situation and with a similar role to JP. The Heat’s Tyler Herro, the NBA’s 6th Man of the Year award winner last season, signed a 4-year, $130 million contract extension this week.
Tyler Herro is not a starter with the Heat, but he’s a key player in many of their lineups because of the scoring punch he can bring. Comparing him with Poole in terms of counting stats puts them on pretty similar ground: Herro averaged 20 points per game to Poole’s 18 while averaging about 2 more minutes, both averaged 4 assists a game, and both also shot 44% from the field. They made the same amount of threes per game, have similar foul-drawing and turnover rates. They both also play similar roles for their team as offensive initiators and primary scorers for the second unit.
Their counting stats would indicate JP’s value is actually higher than Herro’s, but NBA contracts tend to work in ranges, meaning we’ll probably see a payday for him similar to what Miami got their 6th man back for despite having higher production in the playoffs and being more impactful in terms of advanced stats and eye-test impact. There’s also a question of long-term value: Jordan Poole has been lauded a lot as a “disciple” of Steph Curry, and he’s had plenty of moments where he’s lived up to that moniker. The Warriors likely want to keep him because his skillset is pretty unique for a lead guard in the same way that Steph’s is.
Contracts that were given out earlier in the summer would likely have put the Warriors in much safer territory to try and extend Poole, with the Knicks giving RJ Barrett just over $100 million for 4 years and the Blazers doing the same with Anfernee Simons, but it’s safe to say that Poole’s closer to Herro’s contract value than he is to those other guys because he’s proven he can contribute to winning in similar ways. In all likelihood, we’ve now seen the floor for what Poole is more than likely to make. There could be an argument that Herro’s hardware has made his value go up, but had he not started so many games because of Klay Thompson’s midseason return and time spent away by Steph due to injury, then that trophy could very well have been Poole’s. He knows he has value to the team, and while he probably wants to stay around, he’s certainly eligible to get that bag: It’s hard to find a guard who can do as much damage and demand as much defensive attention both on and off-ball like he can.
The deadline for the team to get a deal done is October 17th, the day before the regular season starts, meaning once again that Poole’s extension is first up on the docket. In all likelihood, this is the deal that’s going to get done, and barring an incredible breakout from Ryan Rollins which puts him in the same echelon, is the deal that needs to get done for the Warriors to maintain their winning ways long-term. JP has the blueprint, and bringing him back to rise with the up-and-coming young new core is going to be key to success down the line which Golden State has been banking on.
(Photo credit: Jeff Chiu / Associated Press)