Diagnosing Steph Curry's Slump

It’s been a hot topic that the last 15 games, Steph Curry has not been playing well. Some may say, for his standards, that he’s playing abysmally. Earlier this week, we made sure to avoid panic even after two big dud games against Miami and Dallas. But just because we know this slump will turn around quickly, doesn’t mean we can’t analyze it in search of a trend.

First, let’s establish the baseline. Steph’s best month this season was November, where he averaged 46% from the field, 42% from three, and had a 60% effective field goal percentage. Of his shots, more were assisted than not: Curry had 54% of his shots assisted in that month, and 46% unassisted. In his recent slump, he’s actually shot more unassisted (49%) than usual. Initially, the diagnosis was that he should play more on-ball to establish more of a rhythm, but if you go by these stats, that doesn’t seem to be the issue.

Of course, however, you have to contextualize those because what counts in the NBA as an assist is both funky and inconsistent. When you go into shot details, the story gets a little more complicated. First, let’s establish pull-ups and step-backs as off-the-dribble, in-rhythm shots because that’s what they are, but you can still get counted for assisting one of those.

If you look at the percentages on those two specific shot types, specifically from three-point range, you get some unexpected results based on what we just established. In November, his best month, Curry shot 48% on step-back threes. In his slump? He’s shooting 56%. That would indicate his in-rhythm shooting is actually better in this stretch, right? The pull-up numbers would slightly disagree, as he’s shooting 34% on pull-up threes in his last 15, versus 37% in November. Regardless, doesn’t look like his off-the-dribble shooting is the source of the issue.

Even though he’s had some uncharacteristic misses around the rim, his layups also are not the source. In fact, he’s been shooting layups and finger rolls at a solid percentage in this last stretch (to the tune of 52% and 58% respectively). In November, he shot 54% on both. These numbers are similar enough to not indicate a trend.

So what the hell is going on with Steph? If you look at his shots which the NBA tracking database defines as “jump shots”, he’s shooting about 10% worse in the last 15 than he did in November (44% down to 34%). It’s no secret Steph isn’t exactly a mid-range god, but his mid-range seems to be what’s killing his numbers. He shot 57% on mid-range shots in November. This last stretch, it’s been 29%. What’s interesting is that he’s shooting less unassisted mid-range jumpers this time around (63% versus 55%), so it looks like there may be some credence to that rhythm argument.

His restricted area self-creation remains roughly consistent, which is why we haven’t seen any disparity in those numbers. The same goes for his off-the-dribble threes. Steph’s midrange, while not necessarily his best shot or what makes him a great scorer, seems to be what’s throwing him off. He’s not getting as many clean looks by his own volition, and when he does, he’s not converting them.

Considering he actually shoots better from that zone of the court than proclaimed mid-range savant Kyrie Irving over the course of his career, it doesn’t appear that this is a trend which requires some attention. He’s taking more shots in the mid-range likely because defenses are running him off the line and throwing traps that he has to dive to get loose from, or just because he’s in his head about his threes. His percentages from three across the board are down as well though, and if you look at his numbers based on how many dribbles he takes before shooting, you start to see where the issue lies.

When he takes zero dribbles this season, Steph shoots an exceedingly mediocre 38% from three. When he takes 1 or 2, he shoots 42%. But when he takes 3 or more, he regresses back to 37%. This regression lines up with some of his best seasons through his career, where a few rhythm dribbles tend to help him shoot better. He’s only shooting 39% as a spot-up guy this season, and he’s shooting them with a higher frequency than he was last season. He’s shot 10% worse in transition this season as well, from 54% down to 44%. The one play-type he’s actually shooting better in? Isolation, where he’s 55% from the field this season versus only 44% last season despite similar volume.

So what can we conclude from the general fact that Steph’s shooting better on shots where he’s making it happen by himself? It looks like Twitter is actually right about something for once, and that it’s a rhythm issue. Curry’s slump last season in December had him shooting best in the mid-range because so many of his shots (88%) were unassisted. When he shoots unassisted shots, his shooting percentages have a tendency to go up or at worst, they stay consistent. The same is true for shots that require him to make a move or take a couple dribbles.

Is there an easy solution to this? Not the way Steph is getting defended right now. While Poole and Wiggins have been great, they both share a common issue that was on display last night: Consistency. They’re not big enough threats night-to-night by themselves to prevent defenses from selling out on Curry, which is probably what’s stopping him from getting going. He has to play off-ball because otherwise, he’s constantly getting double-teamed and has several defenders keeping an eye on him at once. It’s unreasonable to assume the scheme should switch to an iso-heavy one just on account of getting Steph’s rhythm back, especially when the answer is showing up on Sunday.

With Klay Thompson’s return, the Warriors will have another reliable scorer who, assuming Klay can still shoot like his old self (which there’s no indication he can’t do), will require a lot of attention lest he go nuclear. When defenses can no longer sell out on Steph to get him cold, he’s going to go supernova. This was the same case with Poole’s return last year. When he came back as a credible, consistent scoring threat, the floor opened up and Steph was able to get back into his rhythm.

The moral of the story is that Steph is cold because he doesn’t have the ball in his hands enough. He doesn’t have the ball in his hands enough because if he did, he’d just be getting trapped all night which would lead to a lot more mistakes than him playing off-ball more has. When the Warriors have a consistent second option who can light another team up for 30 or more just off catch-and-shoot scenarios, Steph will once more be unleashed. So once again, no need for the panic button: He’ll be back to his old self soon enough.

(Photo credit: National Basketball Association)