The Hunted Are The Hunters Once Again
The departure of Kevin Durant and debilitating ACL injury inflicting Klay Thompson required Bob Myers to stretch deep into his bag of tricks to piece together a contender. After the whirlwind that was free agency, only six players remain from the previous season. These six players accounted for less than half of the team’s minutes last season.
The Warriors front office has done a masterful job surrounding Steph Curry with a respectable roster that can contend for the title come playoff time but also shedding aging veterans and injecting youth with an eye on the future. The average age of the team will drop 3.5 years from last season as the group goes from the third oldest to eighth youngest team in the league.
The current roster includes:
Stephen Curry
Klay Thompson
Draymond Green
D’Angelo Russell
Kevon Looney
Willie Cauley-Stein
Alfonzo McKinnie
Alec Burks
Jordan Poole
Eric Paschall
Glenn Robinson
Omari Spellman
Alen Smailagic
Damion Lee (two-way contract)
Ky Bowman (two-way contract)
Unlike the last few seasons, the Warriors will not be able to sleepwalk through the regular season and turn the switch on in the playoffs. If the injury bug hits the team for a prolonged stretch, the Warriors playoff hopes could be in jeopardy.
To start the season, I expect Steve Kerr to roll out the following starting lineup:
Stephen Curry
D’Angelo Russell
Alfonzo McKinnie
Draymond Green
Willie Cauley-Stein
Unlike previous years, where the starters were a foregone conclusion (apart from the center position) heading into training camp, players will have the chance to vie for a starting role.
Cauley-Stein will provide vertical spacing, similar to that provided by JaVale McGee in the past. The Warriors would be hoping that they can resurrect Cauley-Stein’s career as they did McGee’s. While Looney is the superior player, Cauley-Stein is a better roll man in the pick-and-roll than Looney. Expect Looney to either start depending on the matchup or to be the first man off the bench. Kerr has lauded Looney in his media appearances during the off-season and has mentioned that he is aiming to get the former Bruin around 30 minutes per game and expects him to shoot threes regularly.
The lack of wing depth on the roster coupled with the presence of the two aforementioned centers will likely reduce the minutes Green plays in the center position. Unlike previous years, expect Green to have a greener light to let the long-range bombs fly. The former DPOY shot 39% from deep in 2015-16, the last season before Kevin Durant’s arrival. In each of the three seasons Durant put on a Golden State jersey, Green failed to crack 31%. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Green’s three-point volume and efficiency increase with added freedom and reduced hesitancy.
The three-spot in the Warriors opening lineup is up in air. Sterling performances in training camp could see anyone from McKinnie to Alec Burks to Jordan Poole given the starting spot. McKinnie seems like the most likely candidate given his familiarity with the system. He provides a decent threat from outside and strong offensive rebounding capability to infuse energy in the starting lineup, which has often come out the gates flat in the past few years. Kerr will be hoping that McKinnie’s awareness on the defensive side will improve with another year in the league under his belt and the tutelage of former DPOY Green.
When Thompson, who is rumored to be targeting a February comeback, returns, he will take McKinnie’s place in the starting lineup. At full-strength, the Warriors will likely close most of its contests with Curry, Russell, Thompson, Green and Looney. That five rivals any lineup any team in the league can put on the court.
However, the Warriors depth is largely untested and could prove to be an issue.
Jacob Evans, who had a hugely disappointing rookie campaign after being touted as someone who could immediately contribute, is viewed to be a successor to Shaun Livingston – a long, switchable, non-shooting point guard. He will be given the opportunity to pilot the second unit. Kerr has been pleased with the strides has made defensively thus far in his career. He will be given ample opportunity to show his caliber this season.
Alec Burks, who was shuffled across three franchises last season, will be asked to produce instant offense for the Dubs second unit. The second unit has often gotten into a funk in the past few years and fans often grew exasperated watching the lead evaporate as the starters took a breather. Burks is a capable isolation scorer, who will be able to play on and off the ball. The 28 year old will also be the oldest player on the second unit and will be asked to be a leader for the unit. Depending on his performance, he could potentially close some games for the Warriors.
It will be interesting to see how Poole and Paschall’s game translates to the pro level. Both will be allowed to play through their mistakes, a luxury that Warrior rookies haven’t had in the recent past. The former Michigan Wolverine will be a key cog in the second unit serving as a floor-spacer and another ball-handler. As with many rookies, his minutes will largely depend on how quickly he acclimates to the defensive schemes. Paschall has a similar physique and shows shades of Green in his play. Like Green did with Jordan Bell, he will take Paschall under his wing. The four-year college player is expected to be ready for minutes immediately. His defensive intensity and versatility he displayed in college and summer league paired with his ability to space the floor and initiate some offense will make it hard for the coaching staff to keep him off the floor.
Robinson will get opportunities given the lack of wing depth. He was removed from the Pistons rotation in the middle of the season last year as he shot under 30% from three. However, in his two seasons prior to that, he shot over 39% in each season. He has the length, heft and remarkable vertical leap. The tools are definitely there, but it remains to be seen if he can put it together to become a viable contributor.
Spellman is an interesting option in the vein of Marresse Speights, a crowd favorite at Oracle Arena for three seasons. He showed signs of potential during his rookie campaign for the Hawks. He has identified his weight, which ballooned up to 293 pounds last year, as a point of improvement. He will get opportunities at the power forward position during the season if he continues improving his physique.
Smailagic is unlikely to get much run this season despite dropping a nasty poster for his first points in a Warriors jersey during summer league. The teenager will likely spend most of the season with the G-League squad barring injury to big men.
Lee was a welcome surprise for the Warriors last season and it was slightly perplexing to see him not receive a guaranteed contract by any other team. Due to the Warriors hard cap brought on by the Russell trade, Lee remains on a two-way contract. Despite his defensive limitations, his shooting prowess will be welcomed by the Dubs.
The prized get of the off-season, Russell, keeps Warriors hopes of contending for a title next season alive. He will be able to learn from Curry, the person he compared his game to as a rookie coming into the league. His ability to play in the pick-and-roll will be crucial for the Warriors, especially in important matches when Curry is on the bench. He will allow Curry to play off-ball more, jetting around the court behind screens. Especially with Thompson out for the first half or so of the season, Russell will be expected to carry a substantial scoring burden. Used to playing in a more ball-dominant role, it will take a while for Russell to get used to Warriors screening, cutting and motion offense. Defensively, there are major question marks regarding his fit with Curry in the backcourt.
Curry will be unable to pass off tough defensive assignments onto his backcourt mate, as he has done in the years past. From being hidden off-ball to matching against elite point guards could lead to foul trouble woes for Curry. It will be interesting to see the role he takes on defensively given he doesn’t have the luxury of being surrounded by world-class stoppers.
If Curry remains healthy and the Warriors remain in playoff contention, it is hard to see his name being out of the MVP conversation.
To get back to the Finals for the sixth straight time, the Warriors will require some of their young guns to put in meaningful contributions deep into the season.