Stephen Curry versus Kobe Bryant: Looking at the numbers

It’s easy to understand the allure of Kobe Bryant.

In many ways, his game and approach were heroic.

His jaw-dropping athleticism. His impossible fadeaway jumpers. His ability and often insistence to take over and dominate the game in the closing moments. His relentless, nearly mystical work ethic. His killer instinct, death stare and unnerving sledging.

He set the gold standard for what we expected in our generational talents, carrying the baton from Jordan. We didn’t know any other way.

Enter Stephen Curry.

Instead of a death stare, Curry wears a smile. When he goes up for a dunk, fans hold their breath – not in awe of the athletic feat, but the possibility of embarrassment. In closing moments, he is content to goad a double team off the pick-and-roll and let his teammates work 4 on 3 or set a backscreen to free his center. His showboating doesn’t come across as a taunting the opponent, but as a celebration of the game.

Until recently, it didn’t seem appropriate to have an all-time comparison between the two. The catalyst, which sparked a firestorm on NBA Twitter, was the placement of Stephen Curry at No. 10, four spots ahead of Kobe in Bleacher Report’s all-time NBA player rankings.

To prove his point, creator of the list, Andy Bailey (@AndrewDBailey), did a blind poll on Twitter.

Player A (Stephen Curry’s career): 25.1 PTS, 7.1 AST, 4.8 REB, 3.8 3P, 1.8 STL, 0.2 BLK per 75 possessions, +8.0 rTS%, + 6.5 Box +/-, +8.9 Net Rating (+12.1 swing)

Player B (Kobe Bryant’s 10-year peak): 27.7 PTS, 5.2 AST, 5.8 REB, 1.4 3P, 1.6 STL, 0.6 BLK per 75 possessions, +3.0 rTS%, +5.1 Box +/-, +5.2 Net Rating (+7.0 swing)

Unsurprisingly, Player A won overwhelmingly 83% to 17%.

The ratio was even more one-sided when playoff numbers were used. (Side note: Curry also beat out Magic Johnson with a 90-10 margin in a six-year peak blind poll)

Curry’s ascent to stardom, superstardom and now all-time greatness has been sudden, rapid, exhilarating but somewhat unexpected. It was commonly thought that there was a glass ceiling on the all-time chart for a player of his size and stature.

Of course, the per 75 possession numbers are just one aspect off the picture, but nevertheless it’s a good place to start.

It will become a fairer comparison when Curry hangs it up – maybe in six years, according to a recent interview.

He is rapidly making up ground. He is 3rd place for all-time 3 point field goals, 510 behind leader Ray Allen. He has six All-Star appearances, six all-NBA team spots, two MVPs and a scoring title.

The cracks naysayers find in Curry’s armor are slowly eroding.

The one missing trophy in Curry’s cabinet – the Finals MVP – seems to be unfairly out of his grasp. He is the only player in NBA history to average 26 points and 6 assists on the winning team and not win Finals MVP. He’s done so three times. He was inarguably deserving in 2015.

Curry’s willingness to let his teammates take on tougher defensive assignments to keep himself fresh offensively, has been mistaken for a weakness.

“He was our anchor and such an offensive force,” Klay Thompson said of Curry. “I was like, ‘I need to help this man out so he doesn’t have to chase these guys around.’”

This season, he’ll have a chance to show his defensive chops without the presence of Thompson, Kevin Durant, Shaun Livingston and Andre Iguodala to ease the burden.

Given Curry’s infamous injury struggles early in his career and unusually late rise to stardom, it is unlikely that he will ever reach Bryant’s raw totals. He is on the verge of cracking the top 100 in all-time points, 80th in assists and 86th in steals. In comparison, Bryant is 3rd in points (but first in field goals missed), 31st in assists and 15th in steals.

But, Curry’s greatness has never even really been about the numbers. His revolution of the game can be described by one word – gravity. The extent of its effect is widely debated. His plus-minus numbers over the past five years tell some of the story.

Curry over the last 5 seasons has a cumulative plus-minus of over 4,000 points, miles ahead of LeBron’s five year peak (2009-2013) of around 3,500 points and more than doubles Bryant’s cumulative total from 2008-2012.

As the tracking data we extract from the game becomes more and more detailed, it will become easier to see the deeper impact that Curry’s gravity has on the defense that can’t be captured with traditional box score statistics.

Effectively, most greats in the past had to be double-teamed at the rim and occasionally in the mid-range. With a single pick, Curry commands a double team from up to 30 feet out.

His unparalleled shot-making ability was recently characterized by ESPN’s Kirk Goldsberry.

"Curry's 3s were tough. No one has attempted more triples since 2013-14 -- the first year we have full player-tracking data via Second Spectrum -- and only four players took more difficult attempts when accounting for shot quality and defender distance. The gap between Curry's expected eFG (49.6%) and actual eFG (64.0%) on 3s is greater than any other player's."

Curry’s sustained greatness combined with the advance of analytics has forced us to reconcile the idea that a player of Curry’s size, shape and demeanor can not only be a franchise cornerstone, but also enter the highest echelon of basketball greatness.