Warriors Rumor Mill: Andrew Wiggins and Chris Paul Out, Paul George In?

It’s draft day in the NBA, which means that plenty of teams are getting ready to make moves - or, if they’re like the New York Knicks, are already making them with big trades and contract extensions to go all in now. The Warriors have been at the center of plenty of speculation going into the offseason as they try and find direction towards another title in Stephen Curry’s dwindling window, but things have been heating up lately with a myriad of rumors up in the air.

The first is that, per The Ringer’s Logan Murdock, Golden State is “aggressively” shopping Chris Paul and Andrew Wiggins. This is to be relatively expected given Wiggins and Paul both have a lot of money on the books - clearing up their combined $56 million in salaries would match the salaries of almost any players the Warriors believe could improve their roster.

One of those could potentially be Bobby Portis, with the Bucks and Dubs allegedly in discussions for a trade that would swap him and Wiggins. Portis is 29 years old and locked up under contract for this season, with an option for next season. He’s not the type of player who’s going to be making big extension money, but he’s a solid piece who can stretch the floor and reinforce the backline alongside Draymond Green. The biggest downside is that the Warriors lose their best primary defender without getting a solid one in return, forcing them to be reliant on leaps from Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody’s on-ball defense, and the health of Gary Payton II who missed significant time just last season.

While Portis doesn’t represent a bad option, the money Paul and Wiggins make up is enough that Golden State can probably think a bit bigger and opt to pursue a secondary star. There’s not many options at the moment with the most parity there’s been in the NBA for a long time, but there’s also plenty of belief around the league that if they wanted to go big-game hunting with a big-name trade, they have the players and assets to make it happen.

Which brings us to another major rumor: ESPN’s Brian Windhorst reported earlier today that the Warriors are prepared to offer Clippers wing Paul George a 4-year max deal if they’re able to trade for him. The way this most likely happens is via a sign-and-trade, and while not ideal since this contract would mean PG’s making max money until he’s 39 years old, his offense does fit very well as a scorer next to Curry. He could be the secondary scorer - or primary in some cases, since Steph’s so good off-ball - that the Warriors need. Plus his shooting and passing will both keep him productive when his athleticism starts to deteriorate more. While not a world-breaking disruptor, George can take tougher defensive assignments on bigger wings and even some guards; he isn’t a cone out there, plus he has the ability to provide some good relief off the ball with his length and size in help.

The Warriors’ ability to bring in PG is one that could potentially be hampered by the new CBA rules, which would restrict them from taking on more contract money than they give up if they were to get back into the first apron (which would disqualify the trade per the new rules). That is, however, possibly contingent on whether or not Klay Thompson is resigned, and the number he’s resigned at. Offering Thompson a contract that’s around the size he’s looking for is an important hurdle to a big-name move - without him on the books, the Dubs are $2.5 million under the first apron, meaning they have some room they could use to get George without losing Wiggins by way of CP3, Kevon Looney, GP2, and a first-round pick as compensation - they’d still remain right under the apron, but would be handcuffed from making another net-negative salary move.

With an alleged rift between Thompson and the Warriors due to ongoing contract negotiations, his decision is very possibly the holdup from a trade getting done outright. The possible scenarios are likely the following: If Klay walks, the Warriors can make a big-name trade without losing one of Andrew Wiggins or Chris Paul (in this case, Wiggins staying is the likelier outcome since CP3’s contract is bigger and his role is more replaceable). If Klay comes back at a reduced cost, it’s likely that we see both Paul and Wiggins’ times as Warriors expire, and the organization can still get a high-caliber secondary star while keeping cap space. If Klay is resigned at his target number, there’s likely only marginal moves to be made to improve the team without punting on not only Wiggins and Paul, but also Jonathan Kuminga, and Moses Moody - something general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. was not keen on entertaining in his presser this week.

So what’s the move to be made? The ideal scenario, of course, is that Klay Thompson returns to a reduced role on a more team-friendly contract, and the Warriors can make a Paul George trade happen from there using Paul and Wiggins’ contracts with possibly another player in return if they throw in a pick. Payton II and Looney’s contracts could be utilized as assets to get some more specialized defensive and spacing depth, there’s some room for minimum contracts to shore up the froncourt, and the Warriors window is back open with enough room for the younger players to get chances to improve on the positive impacts they had last season while the team looks to compete again.

And what if Thompson walks? If that’s the case, the Warriors should be able to hang on to Wiggins in a Paul George trade, with the option to flip him to a team that could give them some solid point-of-attack defense and frontcourt spacing. However, with George taking on more scoring responsibility, keeping Wiggs could end up being a better choice since his rebounding and defense are still at a very high level, and essentially splitting his current role between himself and George.

In the event that a Paul George trade doesn’t happen for either of these scenarios, it’s still on the Warriors to try and make something happen with another big-name move. Dejounte Murray seems to be one player continuously on the trade block in Atlanta, and while the price to acquire him may be higher, he’d still bring some good shot-making, offensive creation, and defensive grit to a Warriors team which needs all three. A Murray deal does potentially mean that Kuminga’s gone with the Hawks moving towards getting younger, something that shouldn’t happen unless they’re willing to include defensive wing De’Andre Hunter in the deal - and even then, it’d have to be a hard bargain.

But trading JoKu isn’t necessarily required. Hunter and Murray’s contracts equate to around $47 million, meaning there are some options the Warriors could use to acquire them. Kuminga and a draft pick would likely be Atlanta’s ideal scenario, but in order to move off Murray’s contract (three more years plus one with a player option) and avoid a bad fit with franchise cornerstone Trae Young, they may be willing to take on Moody instead since they lack younger backcourt depth and he’s already shown he can produce in limited minutes on both ends of the floor.

If the Warriors are willing to give up Moody, two picks (a first next year and maybe a second in a later year), GP2, Loon, and CP3, and Atlanta’s willing to take that, then it seems like a potential win-win scenario for each team: Both stay out of the first apron, the Hawks get assets to flip for and an addition to their youth movement, and the Warriors improve while keeping Andrew Wiggins. A perimeter group shored by Murray and Wiggins with Draymond Green roaming in the backline and Hunter off the bench would give opposing teams fits.

In the case that it’s Wiggins who’s gone with that group, the Warriors can still give up Paul for assets, or even offload his contract outright in order to create room for Klay Thompson to come back on a deal that’s more to his liking, all while keeping some extra money for depth or another smaller-name trade. A lineup of Curry-Murray-Thompson-Hunter-Green sacrifices some size - something which historically hasn’t been a problem for the Warriors statistically, given their 2022 championship was won without a player over 6’9 on the roster receiving minutes - but puts two capable spacers alongside two shot-creators with Green making reads from the top of the key and in the short roll, with credible-enough defense at every position.

Despite the prompting of trades being “difficult”, there are clearly avenues for the Warriors to tangibly improve while accomplishing their goals of staying beneath the first and second aprons, and they’re avenues the team is looking to take if the rumors are to be believed. This is a team that has the means to improve with evidence of mutual interest between them and players who would improve them, and it’ll be key to do so while Steph Curry is still in the league. Klay Thompson’s skillset can’t be replicated very easily, so while there’s a growing rift between the two parties, attempts to keep him are in the team’s best interest so long as the number is right.

At the end of the day, these rumors are just that - rumors. There’s some which are looking like they’ve gained momentum, some which are obvious, and some which have become less likely by the hour with all the smoke which often surrounds the draft. But where there’s smoke, there can be fire, so we’ll just have to stay tuned to see what the moves are when free agency begins next week.

(Photo credit: Brandon Dill / Associated Press)