Where Do The Warriors Go From Here?
Some losses sting just a bit more than others. Even if an in-season tournament berth was out of the question with more than a minute left at the Golden One Center in Sacramento, it would have hurt a lot less to walk away with the win intact.
Once again though, the Golden State Warriors were a tale of two halves last night. The myriad of problems and shortcomings that have plagued the team through the course of the dynasty all seemed to rear their ugly heads at once through the course of the 3rd and especially the 4th quarters. Untimely turnovers, rampant fouling, shot selection selfishness, attitude issues, and the politics of the closing lineup accumulated into the perfect storm that allowed the Kings back into the game after a dominant first half, and gave Malik Monk the opportunity to hit the tough go-ahead bucket that sealed it as another devastating Warriors loss.
The problem started, of course, with injuries: Chris Paul played about 5 minutes before he was ruled out for the game with lower leg soreness, and Gary Payton II exited in the 3rd quarter due to a calf tear that will leave him sidelined indefinitely. While both Paul and Payton are key players for the Warriors, their departures shouldn’t have mattered nearly as much with Draymond Green back in the lineup and Klay Thompson finding his rhythm early. After all, they’re part of the core that won 4 championships, and they’ve shown they still have plenty of gas in the tank.
Those two however, alongside both Steve Kerr and surprisingly none other than Stephen Curry, made plays and decisions that ended up swinging the momentum all the way back in Sacramento’s favor.
We’ll start with Curry, given his issue has far and away been the most consistent problem in his illustrious career but somehow has a lesser impact: Turnovers. For whatever reason, Curry has a problem taking care of the rock, coughing it up 5 times last night and 6 times the game before in a nail-biter against the Spurs that shouldn’t have been a nail-biter to begin with.
His brilliance in all other aspects of the offense has a tendency to overlook just how often he makes careless turnovers in critical moments, and last night was no exception with an errant pass that led to the Kings getting into striking distance towards the end of the 4th. Despite being a team-high +7 with his scoring and advantage creation, the turnovers were still glaring. His shot-making or gravity can often cover the mistake up by setting up a bucket on the next possession down, especially in the clutch, but these kinds plays can’t happen from your superstar as often as they do with Steph.
Next up is Draymond Green, who’s problem is also one of the more consistent ones: His temper. This was Dray’s first game back after a 5-game suspension for choking out Rudy Gobert a few games back. Green’s had a bit of a target on his back recently with the officials as the league is clearly starting to get sick of his antics. What he brings on the defensive end is not replicable by almost anyone else in the NBA, but the caveat is that his emotions can get the better of him, which can lead to him putting himself in situations that can earn him a technical foul, like it did last night.
While Green certainly didn’t deserve a tech for pointing out that Malik Monk was carrying the basketball on a play he got a pair of free throws on (and doing so in a manner that other players do all the time), his out-loud frustrations can rile up a crowd and energize the home team. At this stage in his career, he has to be more aware of how his actions are going to end up impacting the mental side of the game, as well as how they impact who the referees are going to give a more favorable whistle to: If he’s jawing at them all night, they’re not going to give him or his teammates much more benefit of the doubt.
For all intents and purposes, Klay Thompson actually had a solid night if you remove the scoring aspect. He had 9 defensive rebounds (an area Golden State has struggled this year), played solid defense without fouling in a whistle-happy game, and blocked a few shots. This is another trend of the season in that Klay’s been a good basketball player all-around.
But the scoring is what they need most from him. And they’re not getting it.
Thompson’s biggest knock last year was his shot selection, and that’s carried into this year as well. He started off the game with an efficient 17 points in his first 17 minutes… and scored 3 the following 19. When the going gets tough, his tendency to force shots results in empty possessions which harm the team once an opponent’s offense starts humming, like Sacramento’s did last night. While not counted as turnovers statistically, those misses lead to fast-break opportunities that younger teams thrive on and can hurt the team’s rhythm through disruption. Thompson is at his best when he’s not hunting for the difficult shot with the ball in his hands or hoisting up prayers to try and spark a run, and his lack of recognition of that is becoming an issue more and more with every game.
And finally, Steve Kerr. Notorious for his interesting decision-making that is very hit-or-miss, there were multiple decisions he made last night which were not in his favor. The first was that he gave 8 minutes of run to Cory Joseph, who has been bad this season and did not trust Brandin Podziemski to have a positive impact, despite the rookie proving that he can hang in tough environments; Podz picked up a DNP-CD for what feels like no reason in a game that they could have used some youth in. Another one was sitting Steph Curry in a crucial stretch in the middle of the 4th and going with - you guessed it - CoJo again. Against a backcourt of De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk, Joseph was practically a turnstile given how quick they are, and how quick he is not.
The most egregious and confusing one, however, was when Kerr took out a red-hot Moses Moody (who was 4 for 4 in the 4th quarter alone, not counting two swishes that were waved off for off-ball fouls, and had just cashed his 3rd straight triple) to put in Andrew Wiggins and Kevon Looney. The Wiggins move made sense: He historically has been good on Fox, and was having an excellent night. Looney was more questionable, as even though he also has a history of bottling up Domas Sabonis, the Dubs could’ve gone small and let Draymond deal with the center. But there was one player who Kerr decided to leave on the floor that shouldn’t have been out there down the stretch, and that was Klay Thompson.
We’re only a few days removed from Thompson’s presser where he seemed befuddled at the concept he could come off the bench to start the game. History would say that Klay’s earned his starting role, but in order to be a winning team, sacrifice is required. That’s on Klay, but it’s also plenty on Kerr for not manning up and saying “we’re going to do what we have to do to win”. It was a political decision on Kerr’s part that directly had an impact on the outcome: Moody was one of the best players on the floor, like he has been all season, and a decision like this one is objectively the wrong one to make in that scenario. From a game scheme perspective, Moody was the only person aptly punishing the Kings for blitzing Curry on the pick-and-roll. Even if it wasn’t Thompson who sat, keeping Looney on the bench and playing small would have still been a net-positive of a decision. It’s honestly baffling that Kerr sat the second-best player on his team at the moment for no reason other than not wanting to hurt Klay’s feelings.
All of these issues are starting to trend, and for a dynastic core, that’s a bad sign. So the question has to be asked, where do the Golden State Warriors go from here?
The first step probably involves benching Klay Thompson for Moses Moody. Transitioning him to the role of the 6th man gives him a lion’s share of shots while playing alongside a distributor in Chris Paul, and against second unit defenses that can’t guard him effectively. This solution requires both self-awareness and poise from Thompson, and while it would take time to get used to, it would ultimately be better for the team. Moody’s not a great on-ball defender but he’s no worse than Klay and is good off-ball. With Wiggins getting back into form, he’s able to take the primary point-of-attack assignments which would leave Moody to use his length on wings who don’t put the ball on the deck as much. He’s been lights-out as a shooter and has shown he can both relocate for threes and pressure the rim, two things which would pair well alongside Steph’s playmaking.
A similar yet rangier suggestion is to integrate the youth more solidly into the rotation. Moody should be the 6th or 7th man off the bench if he’s not starting and depending on how CP3’s minutes shake out, with Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis getting a bit more freedom to make mistakes and grow while still having positive impacts. Neither of them play like true rookies, they’ve earned as much freedom to grow. Jonathan Kuminga’s in a bit of a trickier situation: If his offense isn’t going, the rest of his game just doesn’t seem to be as crisp. He needs to improve as a rebounder and a more disciplined defender, but he needs more minutes to do so. The fact is that the Warriors are old, and they look old a lot of the time out there, so trusting the young guns with the freedom to play a bit faster gives the bench’s offense a different look that can disrupt an opposing coach’s gameplan.
The most drastic step to take would involve trades and other personnel changes. Kerr’s stubbornness is starting to become a more glaring issue, and while it may not be time to move on from him just yet, the question has to be asked if he can adjust to what the team needs to do to win moving forward. Thompson’s upcoming contract extension could put more money on the books than the Warriors can afford to have once they have to look at resigning their rotation pieces, which could signal that there’s a choice or two to make regarding his future versus most likely the younger players. And while having the next generation of Golden State hoops waiting in the wings to take over when there’s no gas left in the core is the ideal scenario, those younger players (Moody and Kuminga especially) deserve space to both grow as players and further prove they belong: It’s a disservice to keep benching them for no good reason when they can help contribute to wins, and teams could look at offering players that Kerr is more likely to trust in return for acquiring them.
Whatever the solution is, be it one of the three above or something else entirely, the Warriors need to adjust and adapt. The consistent issues their core players have and just can’t seem to correct is a warning sign: The end of the dynastic run really is coming soon if things don’t change. It’s either on Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Steve Kerr to right the ship with what they have now and turn this team into the contender they’ve shown flashes of, or it’s on first-year general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. to make the hard moves that will maximize the time Curry still has as the centerpiece of a true contender.
(Photo credit: Jesse D. Garrabrant / Getty Images)