The Warriors are coming into the 2023-2024 season with different expectations. After the whirlwind that was this last season, there’s been plenty of acknowledgement that almost everything which could’ve gone wrong in a year that Golden State’s Hall of Fame core all managed to stay pretty healthy, did go wrong.

This season already has a different feel to it. There’s no question about a second timeline, there’s yet to be a major issue which affects the team’s chemistry, and almost most importantly, there’s opportunity for growth that the remaining young players can take and run with.

Moses Moody has officially earned his rotation spot as a glue guy after a great playoff stretch where he was often a big reason the Warriors stayed afloat against the Lakers, Trayce Jackson-Davis looks like a ready-made contributor with his experience and skills, and while Brandin Podziemski did struggle towards the end of summer league, some time in the G-League will do him well. These guys will all have room to grow because of their individual situations, but there’s one player who’s going to get what could be his perfect shot.

They say the best situations for high-ceiling prospects are ones where they have freedom to make mistakes, and to play their game. Jonathan Kuminga didn’t have that a year ago, but he will now.

One thing that’s never been in doubt about JoKu’s game is that he can score. He’s an athletic force of nature, standing at 6’7 (or a bit taller, if you believe the offseason rumors that despite not being 7’2, he did actually grow) with a 6’11 wingspan and a 38-inch vertical when he came into the league. He turned in a field goal percentage of 62% within 8 feet, shooting 69% in the paint, while improving his shooting stroke to be much smoother and splashing 37% of his outside jumpers. He had 94 total dunks and flashed some improvements to his midrange game, playing with pace and showing off a variety of moves to get into his shot in the lane.

Last season, the bench scoring role was largely reserved for Jordan Poole, who was fresh off a playoff run which marked him as a key contributor. Poole earned that role too, and despite some inconsistency throughout the season, his scoring was never really in doubt. With him now gone to the Washington Wizards, it opens up a lot of shots that we can likely expect Kuminga to take instead. The Warriors didn’t really acquire much when it comes to play finishing: Dario Saric is a versatile offensive player who can get his when he needs to, but his floor spacing is going to be a lot more key than offensive creation, and they haven’t added anyone else who can really pile it up.

Chris Paul’s role is expected to be as a quarterback on both ends of the floor, meaning he’ll be creating advantages for Kuminga to capitalize on. A good way to think about what kind of improvements is to look back at CP3’s tenure with the Clippers, a time many Warriors fans remember well, and one of the guys he played with: 5-time All-Star Blake Griffin. JoKu and Griffin share some similarities in their games, at least from a perspective of what their roles could look like next to Paul: They’re both elite athletes who have no hesitations about putting someone on a poster whether it’s a drive into the lane themselves or cutting baseline to catch a lob, have workable midrange games, and are improving as shooters gradually.

The differences are that Kuminga’s already a better on-ball defender, and Griffin was a much better rebounder. While he’s also a better free throw shooter than Blake was, he’s got some room to improve, especially since he’s able to get into the lane and draw contact so often. Unfortunately, Jonathan’s going to need to have some growth in the latter in order to stay on the floor, on top of improving his off-ball defensive awareness. Steve Kerr’s always been a believer in doing the “dirty work”, which is why he’s always been a big fan of multi-year college players. JK lacks the experience doing those, not necessarily due to disinterest or inability but instead due to that never really having been his role.

Part of why high-ceiling prospects often don’t look instantly ready is that they’ve been the best player on their teams their whole lives. With the Warriors, it’s the first time Kuminga’s not only inarguably not the best player, but also the first time he’s been on the bench so often. There’s plenty of noise about his ego and how he needs to buckle down and do whatever Kerr tells him to, but the reality is that it’s a two-way street: JoKu does need to lean into versatility to unlock his potential, but it’s on Kerr to use him correctly as well. Now that Poole is gone, there’s a lot of opportunity for him to steer his 3rd-year high-flyer in a direction that’s more comfortable and familiar, which inevitably will help him grow his game by giving him confidence on the floor.

The name to watch for this season with the Warriors will be Jonathan Kuminga’s. He has the tools and the drive to get better, and despite the offseason workout videos never being something to put a ton of stock into, JoKu’s not just been working but he’s been noticeably improving. His jumper’s continuing to look smoother, his handle’s gotten tighter with more ways to separate and create, and there’s a sense of joy in his game that’s beginning to become more and more noticeable. The third season is often when talented young guns start to make the leap to something greater: Jayson Tatum, Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Devin Booker and many other players like them started their trajectory in Year 3.

There’s no doubt about how high Jonathan Kuminga can fly. It’s a matter of if he will, and with opportunity abound for him, he’s just got to make sure he does the little things to keep himself on the floor. And when he does put it together, we’ll truly get the vision for the next era of Warriors basketball.

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