Warriors Draft Analysis: Targets With The 19th Pick
For as tumultuous a season as they just had, the Warriors have turned draft picks into a sustainable way of growing their team. Kevon Looney has become a staple of the modern Warriors era and is one of the league’s best rebounders at only 6’9, Jordan Poole’s down season was preceded by him being a major X-factor in a championship run, and of course, the core three of Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, and The System himself Stephen Curry, were all draftees.
There’s been plenty of criticism (deservedly so) on James Wiseman being picked at #2 overall just a few years ago, and the jury is still out on Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody, but both of the latter two have shown high potential in just their sophomore seasons. Moody was an impact player in the rotation in the playoffs and it a proven glue guy, while Kuminga’s ceiling looks incredibly high. Patrick Baldwin Jr. has even had flashes likening him to Michael Porter Jr.’s early days with the Nuggets, showing one of the league’s best shooting strokes as just a rookie.
In a draft class considered one of the deepest in recent memory, the Warriors could look to add another rotation player with plenty of close-to-league-ready prospects projected to be available with the 19th pick. The fact of the matter is that the Warriors can’t pay to up their bench without shorting either Draymond Green or Klay Thompson of a major contract extension: Their payroll simply won’t allow for it unless Jordan Poole gets traded. Looking for rotation pieces in the draft is a smart way to work within the NBA’s newest CBA rules which further limit them. So here’s a look at their needs, and the prospects that fit them.
Team Rotational Needs
Size is a finicky thing in the NBA. The Warriors won a title in 2022 because they had excellent fit for their offensive and defensive tenets despite not fielding a player taller than their center Looney and backup forward Nemanja Bjelica. In spite of that size, they fielded a top-5 rebounding team and the NBA’s second-best defense. The primary issues that need to be addressed is still in the frontcourt, however: Team defense and spacing. The ideal prospect? A 4 or 5 who can shoot, crash the glass, and play smart help defense, but given that the Warriors don’t always have eager offensive initiation, ball-handlers who don’t cough up turnovers could be another way to go so long as they can commit on defense. Bigs who can block shots and tall forwards who can shoot are becoming easier to find, but good two-way guards can plenty rarer at the minimum contracts Golden State would need them at.
Prospect #1: Kris Murray, Iowa
The way Kris Murray fits into an NBA team like the Warriors is something we’ve seen at the NBA level with a rookie of his playstyle already… and it was in an offense coached by a former Warriors top assistant. Murray’s twin brother Keegan had a number of games starting for the Sacramento Kings in the 1st round of the playoffs where he would get easy looks in the flow of the team’s movement, dropping 20+ points multiple times. Kris seems to fit the same archetype: Good defender, solid rebounder, plays within the flow of the game, and a scorer who doesn’t need a lot of dribbles or touches to get looks or heat up. Murray is rated by draft analysts as “plug-and-play” much in the same way as Keegan, but with the added wrinkle of being a lefty, an advantage which has pronounced itself historically in the league. While there’s still plenty of on-ball improvement for Kris Murray to make, he’s entering the draft after his junior season at Iowa, and multi-year college players with good game feel tend to thrive in Steve Kerr’s systems. He’s ranked in the early-to-mid 20s in terms of draft position, and could definitely be available with the 19th.
Prospect #2: Dereck Lively II, Duke
A bit more of a gamble than Murray, Lively II was a vaunted recruit in high school but delivered an underwhelming season numbers-wise at Duke this past year. A physical specimen at 7’1 with a 7’8 wingspan, he has great touch around the rim and range as a shotblocker. Lively brings an element of verticality which the Warriors have lacked in the frontcourt, and has good hands for his size which means he can catch the tough passes which Dray and Steph like to throw. While he’s not much of a shooter and his free throw percentage isn’t great, his touch indicates he could have potentially improving feel over time. The center isn’t as much of a win-now pick as the Warriors would probably hope for, but he does add a dynamic element on both ends with a lot of room for upside. He also has good feel as a passer in the post, and given the Warriors system tending to peak when their offense goes through a big, Lively could grow into a similar role that Andrew Bogut used to play with enough time. He was supposed to work out for Golden State last week, but his run was canceled the day before. His projections have him ranked anywhere from the lottery to the late 20s, so whether he’d be available with the 19th remains to be seen.
Prospect #3: Jalen Hood-Schifino, Indiana
One of the popular picks amongst draft experts for a team that fields some of the best guard play in the NBA is, shocking to almost nobody, a guard. Hood-Schifino boasts some great size for a point at 6’6 and would be a good backcourt mate for Jordan Poole, complementing a lot of JP’s weaknesses: He has an emphasis on playmaking and can play off screens with both a good midrange jumper and a lot of passes in his bag, while being a versatile off-ball defender and a tenacious on-ball pest. The Big Ten Freshman of the Year’s biggest mark is that he’s an inconsistent shooter, but that’s not as much of a concern for the Warriors because of his solid 77% free throw shooting and if they’re confident he can find their movement shooters while operating with the ball in his hands in the lane. Another downside is rim pressure, something the Warriors have lacked and something many believe they’ve needed. Hood-Schifino isn’t as aggressive as he could be with his size, so it will be a matter of his mentality moving forward to try and get more aggressive with collapsing the defense. He’s been rated as possibly the best guard outside the lottery, which could make getting him with the 19th a little tricky.
Prospect #4: Jordan Hawkins, UConn
If the Warriors do trade Poole, it wouldn’t hurt to have an explosive scorer who can get hot at a moment’s notice that won’t require as much volume. While Hawkins would do well to have a proper offensive initiator at his side, he could end up being the draft’s most underrated prospect: He’s a low-maintenance scorer who can shoot from any position and a willing passer if he knows there’s a better shot somewhere else. He relocates well and never stops moving, so while his on-ball talent isn’t quite there yet and he can’t create much for himself, he provides a dynamic element as an offensive weapon when other guys can’t get it going. Hawkins is comfortable off of one or two dribble pull-ups if defenders close out too hard as well. In layered actions with as many screens as Golden State employs, it wouldn’t be hard for him to get some space since he already has the nose for it. Defensively, he makes the right rotations and is always active off-ball, and while he won’t be a day 1 on-ball stopper, he’s someone teams can reliably put on off-ball threats and he won’t lose track of them. He’s shown growth in just two collegiate seasons with statistical bumps in all categories after his freshman year, and of course, after his sophomore season winning an NCAA championship with the Connecticut Huskies (he shot 50% from deep during the tournament, many of which came in the 2nd half of pivotal late-round games), he has the proven accolades of a winning player who makes winning plays when it matters most. Draft projections have Hawkins in a lot of places, but his performance in March may have moved him up on team big boards behind closed doors, meaning he could go earlier than 19th.
Prospect #5: Ben Sheppard, Belmont
Another big guard who can initiate the offense, Sheppard has the benefit of being a 4-year college player. While this won’t do much for his upside, it does mean Coach Kerr will probably give him a little more rope when it comes to making mistakes. The senior from Belmont has a reputation as both a catch-and-shoot guy who can knock down difficult no-dribble shots and even attack closeouts effectively, and as a prospect with both good traditional playmaking feel and ingenuity as a passer. The biggest knock on his abilities as a prospect are because he comes from a mid-major conference, but Sheppard showed out in the NBA draft combine and has been garnering interest from a myriad of NBA teams who are picking in the immediate post-lottery section, including the Warriors who he worked out for. Sheppard’s a smart player on defense, with the size to match up across different positions and the off-ball awareness to be an impact player. He fits in the backcourt with Jordan Poole and would replace a decent bit of what Golden States asks Donte DiVincenzo to do if he walks. While most mock drafts have him going as late as the second round, his combine performance has made him one of the draft’s biggest possible risers: If he’s available with the 19th, he may be worth taking a swing on.
The NBA Draft is June 22nd after the conclusion of the NBA Finals. Plenty could happen in that timeframe, including the Warriors making a splash of a trade that would include the 19th pick. If they make a trade that gives them some freer roster construction space within the cap, they can capitalize on finding veteran minimum players who would check a lot of the boxes they need. If they can get a deal done without including the 19th pick, however, a draft class with as much NBA-ready potential as this could be a good way to shore up the roster.
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