For the better part of last season, there was a lot of speculation about what the Warriors’ best five-man lineup would be. The consensus was, because of the emergence of Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins, that it would include those two players alongside the three figureheads of the Golden State dynasty: Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson.

And in the playoffs, we did see it take off a bit. Against the Denver Nuggets, this lineup - which still never settled on a good nickname - put up 70 points in just 19 minutes during Game 2 of the first round. It looked like a gamebreaker, playing four three-level-scoring talents with two-way capabilities around one of the game’s best pass-first forwards ever, but it never really found its footing consistently.

This season, the Warriors’ best five-man lineup has been their traditional starters. Per NBA Stats, the lineup featuring Kevon Looney in place of Poole is the second-best in the league in terms of impact, amongst lineups that have played at least 20 games together. They sit at a plus-minus of 5.1, and have red-hot shooting splits (53.9% from the field, 46.1% from three) on high volume (24.5 field goals attempted per game). They’re putting up 35.2 points in 12.8 minutes per game, mind-boggling for a unit that consists of two guys who aren’t considered shooters.

The new rendition of the infamous “death lineup” which was discovered last year hasn’t been fairing as well. When Poole replaces Looney and the squad goes small, they drop to a net -0.5 plus-minus and shoot worse by wide margins everywhere on the floor. This unit hasn’t played as many minutes together until recently, but one thing is certain: The core starting group is putting up better numbers when they share the floor together.

Looking at the guys involved, there seems to be a clear theme that the 5th man in the lineup is the deciding factor on its overall success. That’s not necessarily a knock on Jordan Poole, who’s shown some improvements later in the season after a rough start. When playing with Looney and Green, however, the shot volume is honed in on two guys who are having great seasons as volume scorers: Thompson and Curry.

More shots for players having better shooting seasons means higher efficiency and better scoring, as well as eliminates a defensive hole that Poole brings not just because of his aptitude on that end, but a positional gap by having the tallest player on your team being 6’7. Poole’s shot selection has been one of the biggest knocks on him as a young player which doesn’t help either, especially when he can make things unnecessarily difficult for himself.

By just standing on the court, Stephen Curry generates gravity and demands the focus of the defense so much that good shooters can get much easier shots by playing around him. Wiggins, having a career-high season from three, is a major beneficiary of this. Thompson, who has some gravity in his own right as well, also benefits plenty. Poole does too, but it can be hard to tell that when the types of shots he takes can vary.

Per NBA Stats, JP shoots 8 threes a game. 3.4 of those are considered “wide open” (defender is 6 feet or more away), which he cans at a good 38.5%. In general, his catch-and-shoot attempts (which make up a larger share of his total volume from the outside) clock in at 34.5, which is right in the league-average ballpark. On pull-ups, he’s shooting 29.4%, which is a lot more discouraging, and has a volume of only 0.6 less attempts per game than his catch-and-shoots.

Poole being a rhythm shooter and scorer who can light it up from the outside has a lot of benefits, but the drawback is that he can take ill-advised shots when he’s sharing the floor with guys who are just flat-out better. He can get rushed, trying to do too much himself. He’s a great off-ball player, but getting more settled into those off-ball habits - where he can be more effective while doing less - is going to be key for him if the Warriors decide to stay with this lineup more often.

There are two counterpoints which would indicate that this lineup could be good as the starting group, however. Jordan Poole’s numbers are up when he starts, even if his shooting has fallen back down to his averages. He seems more confident and aggressive when he gets the nod alongside Curry, Thompson, Green and Wiggins. And while the Warriors do have arguably the best starting lineup in the league when Looney replaces him, Looney’s actually been very effective off the bench. He plays the same amount of minutes per game, but the lineups he plays with have more margin for error because he’s been so solid.

Per Statmuse, Looney’s plus-minus per game jumps from 1.2 to 3.7 when he moves to the bench. He was huge against Boston and Brooklyn, providing the team a solid anchor to go to when the starters went to the bench. As another Golden State draftee, he’s familiar with the system, giving the second unit the rebounding and size that has been lacking lately. There’s also something to be said about his game IQ, as he was a point guard in high school and gives the bench a leader who can see the game from all over the floor.

Obviously the impact stats are in only a 3-game sample size, but it’s a valid question to ask if both getting Poole going earlier and having Looney to anchor the bench mob can lead to some more consistency over the course of the full 48 minutes. Assuming the rest of the starters return to their winnings ways come crunch time.

It seems like Steve Kerr may be figuring things out in a new fashion. The ideal scenario for the Warriors is still to move before the deadline and pick up a defensive-minded, bigger wing (ideally with a serviceable jumper), but if JaMychal Green can step up a bit and this lineup strategy starts to work, Golden State could be poised for another trip back to the Finals; the next few games (with these wrinkles included) leading to the All-Star Break will be very telling about how seriously in jeopardy that vision may be.

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