The 2022-2023 pre-season starts in under 30 days, which means the full regular season will kick off in a little over a month from today. With the offseason approaching its end, we’re now seeing oddsmakers line up way-too-early predictions for anything from the next NBA champion to awards winners, such as the NBA MVP award.

Had the Warriors been a higher-seeded playoff team in the 2020-2021 season, Steph Curry could’ve taken another unanimous MVP. His carry job with the roster he was given that year, which included an April where he averaged 40 points per game, was all-time even if they didn’t make the playoffs. Now, however, after still remaining such an elite player on the NBA’s top team despite a major shooting slump midway through the year, the MVP odds for next season have left us scratching our heads a little bit:

Naturally, as players get older, they start to fall off. The only exception really has been LeBron James, but even then, he’s taken on more load management and is starting to show signs of decline. Steph’s elite conditioning could have him playing well into his later 30s like James has, and his style of play is evolving to match that. He could end up in a Chris Paul-esque role not too long from now. But the question remains, can he keep up production at an MVP level?

The signs actually point to yes.

The 2021-2022 season had Steph averaging counting stats above his career averages in points and rebounds, and while his shooting slump put some pressure on his shooting percentages, he still had the similarly-high volume and only missed time with injuries resulting in contact. Curry is getting older, sure, but if you look at the game film, he still looks as spry and deadly as ever. He even looks more composed and stronger as he’s built himself up, filling that traditional point guard role for the Warriors when his jumper isn’t falling. He elevated his game in the playoffs as well, posting a higher points per game average, and especially turning it up on the game’s biggest stage in the NBA Finals.

Curry is only 2 years removed from a season which saw him shoot the most field goals of his career, putting up a mind-boggling 13 three-point-attempts per game and hitting them at a scorching 42% clip en route to a 32ppg average and a scoring title. Last season, he was putting up 12 triples a game, a volume which slightly declined by recognizing when he was slumping and would instead aim to be the more traditional point guard by dishing out assists and setting the tempo on offense - something he was especially apt with when Draymond Green was out to injury. The emergence of Jordan Poole and return of Klay Thompson may see Steph’s volume slip a bit, but there should be no illusion he’s absolutely capable of being elite.

So that +1200? It’s looking to be a pretty good value play. Curry’s chances at the MVP might be tough in an environment where there’s a lot of competition, but the Warriors look deep and are likely to end up a top 3 team in the West. With Curry’s regression to the mean in terms of his shooting percentages and counting stats, he has a shot to lead the league in scoring again, and another prolific season could cement his third Most Valuable award. Golden State has the personnel around him to help him succeed, but above all, he’s really just that good with few signs of slowing down.

(Photo credit: Doug McSchooler / Associated Press)