The Warriors may need a referendum on what works with their offense this season. While the team has looking progressively better after an awful start, a lack of late-game execution led to a 1-point loss last night against the Utah Jazz. They looked in control for most of the night without three of their starters, but there were a couple things that ended up costing them in the long run.

There were 4 easy layups missed by Golden State, the kinds of points which need to get counted up for teams to succeed. But this is a bit of an anomaly in the grand scheme of things, as Golden State has been one of the most efficient teams around the rim this season. Their ability to convert at the basket better directly correlates to their win percentage: In wins, they shoot 74% within 5 feet of the hoop, and in losses, 65%.

The Warriors live and die by the three pointer as well. When they lose, they shoot 35% from the outside. When they win, it skyrockets to 46%. The team’s ability to get back to the jumpshooting identity they have has helped get wins… when they can get those shots clean. The more open shots they shoot, the more they win, and a better percentage they shoot at. In shots the NBA tracking database lists as “Wide Open” (defender 6+ feet away), the team fires 19 triples per game in wins, and 16 per game in losses. For just “Open” (defender 4-6 feet away), wins end up with 18 threes attempted, and in losses they take 17. The difference, while somewhat marginal, ends up adding up, especially with the volume the Warriors shoot at.

So how do they go about fixing it? Golden State has established teams can’t leave them open, but they need to take advantage of their shooting efficiency by establishing their ability to attack the basket so they can’t just get run off the line. It’s not a question of if they can do it, of course, as they’re second only to the Sacramento Kings (led by former Warriors number two Mike Brown) in field goal percentage within 5 feet of the hoop at 68.7%, only edged out by .2%; it’s a question of how many more shots can they get.

And that’s with the Kings taking almost 4 more shots a game at the rim. If you change the zone of attack to both the restricted and non-restricted paint areas, you see a similar trend: The Warriors rank 3rd and 1st in those respective categories, but they’re last in restricted area attempts and 20th in non-restricted paint attempts. The Dubs have four guys averaging over 70% on more than 2 shot attempts a game within 5 feet, and one guy (Andrew Wiggins) who’s .1% away from reaching that mark. They average the least amount of drives per game in the NBA yet have the 7th best percentage when they do take those shots.

The team can slash and gets results doing so, and it’s schematically important they take advantage of this strength. If defenses have to respect their ability to collapse the interior by driving and finishing, defenders don’t have the option to tightly contest shots as often, which leads to better scoring chances at the rim.

It’s easy to watch the game film and come to the conclusion that the Warriors are often settling for bad outside shots just because 3 is more than 2. You see it with Poole especially, but to a certain degree Wiggins and Klay Thompson as well. Steph Curry shoots 12 threes a game, yet leads the Warriors in drives at a hair under 9 a contest. The split needs to be more even so defenses see the whole team as the threats to drive that they are.

This is one thing which playing Jonathan Kuminga has brought to the table for Golden State. He’s athletic, strong, and a good finisher who can make defenses pay by taking advantage of the space his teammates provide. His volume should increase, as should Wiggins (whose career-high in three-point-percentage is something he can definitely take advantage of by attacking closeouts) so the team can apply more pressure at the rim and force defenses to concede on open shots by collapsing.

The Warriors rank first in three-point attempts per game while taking the eleventh-most field goals a game relative to the entire league. While this isn’t an uncommon trend for them, the team isn’t generating the same quality shots they usually do. Attacking the rim more often is going to generate opportunities for more open shots, and getting the ball moving is paramount to Steve Kerr’s system.

While there are still some defensive needs to be addressed, this is a simple way to give the offense a different look while creating the shots they want to take. It can’t be wavering between a hot and cold shooting night if Golden State wants another title this season: They need a foundation to work off of.

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