The Warriors went 2-1 in a four day stretch this past weekend, beating the Bulls and Rockets while losing to a shorthanded Pacers squad. Indiana rookie guard Andrew Nembhard put up 31 points and 13 assists in a masterful performance on Golden State’s home court, all while being a key part of slowing Stephen Curry down to secure the win late.

Nembhard is the latest in a series of lead guards to torch the Warriors defense. So far, plenty of players such as Max Struss, Jalen Suggs, Cade Cunningham, and De’Aaron Fox have put up some impressive numbers all against them, and that’s not counting Devin Booker who’s done it twice now. The Dubs have historically not always been great against high-volume centers, but this new trend of guards who they can traditionally bottle up going off against them is troubling.

Despite this trend, fans have clamored that the Warriors’ greatest need is a rim protector to take up James Wiseman’s minutes. Before heading to the G-League for some “get right” games, Big Jim looked lost more often than not while on the court. His status as a backup center has had people thinking the biggest hole in Golden State’s defense has everything to do with free walks to the rim.

The statistics back that notion up as well. The Warriors, even in the last 11 games without Wiseman, rank pretty poorly in terms of restricted area and non-restricted paint area opponent field goal percentages (20th and 30th, respectively). Teams put a lot of pressure on the rim against Golden State, and it gets results.

Except, those teams don’t really take that many shots at the rim.

Within 8 feet, the Warriors rank 19th in opponent field goal attempts and 18th in opponent field goals made. They actually lead the league with the lowest number of opponent field goal attempts in the restricted area at 19.2 a game. The problem is the non-restricted paint area, where they allow the most shots of the entire field. That would count floaters, runners, hooks, and other short jumpers as opposed to the traditional layup.

So this is a bit of a statistical anomaly. Despite allowing so few shots so close to the basket, the paint seems to be where the Warriors are getting killed defensively. How can we begin to reason as to why that is? Rim protection is a possibility, as mobile shot-blockers can better contest shots from further out. But this leads back to the original point regarding a trend of guards getting whatever they want when they play Golden State. And it requires a bit of a lesson on tactics to fully understand.

The pick-and-roll is the most-utilized action in modern basketball by far. It provides a lot of offensive advantages, ones that defenses have to pick and choose how to counter if they aren’t equipped with the personnel to deal with the playtype as a whole. There are a few ways to defend the pick-and-roll if you’re a big, but some are more common than others: Hedge (the roll defender steps up to meet the ball-handler at the level of the screen to buy the trailing defender time to catch up before tagging the roll-man), trap (the roll defender steps up to meet the ball-handler above the level of the screen), and drop (the roll defender tags the roll-man setting the pick, preventing an attack towards the rim from the ball-handler or a pass behind the defensive back line) are the main ones. There are a few others within those types of coverages to defend the pick-and-roll, but those three themes encompass the vast majority.

The Warriors have a tendency historically to hedge or just outright switch, usually because their bigs are a little more mobile or they play small with a lot of wings. This is a strength Kevon Looney has brought, and it helped a lot last season. The problem they didn’t have last season, however, is that when the Warriors try to hedge or drop, the trailing defender hasn’t been able to navigate the screen to get back to his man. This forces more mismatches, as the defender at the point of attack trying to work around the screen is suddenly behind the play, and the defense is essentially a man down as they scramble to rotate into help.

This right here is why the Warriors are also in need of a point of attack defender. Those non-restricted paint shots are, more often than not, a result of a failure from the trail defender to properly navigate the screen, thus leaving the roll defender in an impossible 2-on-1. A good example of a player who is a good point of attack defender is Gary Payton II, and his aptitude (as well as Curry’s jump in defensive ability) was a big reason why the Warriors maintained the 2nd-best defense in the league statistically despite not fielding a player over 6’9 on their way to a 2022 Finals. Donte Divincenzo is good, but he’s not as good as GP2 on the defensive end, and it’s starting to show now that there’s not as solid a cover for Jordan Poole.

Obviously, the ideal choice is to get both a backup rim protector and an extra point of attack defender, but in a pinch, which do you choose? The evidence suggests PoA is more valuable in a perimeter-oriented league. The Warriors won a championship hinging their defense on incredibly strong perimeter shutdown ability despite playing elite perimeter talent like Ja Morant, Jayson Tatum, and Luka Doncic, while teams with elite defensive centers like Rudy Gobert or even Joel Embiid struggle on the inside in the playoffs and are even struggling to a degree right now. The Bucks and Celtics have both, which is why they’re so good on that end. The defense has to remain connected, and with a weak point of attack, there’s a domino effect which leads to teams getting too many easy shots because of numbers advantages more-so than there is with a lack of rim protection.

There’s additional positives to consider with a rim protector like Jakob Poeltl, such as rebounding (the Warriors are 5th in defensive rebounds per game, but shaky on the offensive side) and paint finishing ability (they have the some of the lowest volume but best percentages in the entire NBA). The question becomes if that’s something the Dubs would rather have than more spacing and ball-handling from a guy like Alex Caruso, which could open up the floor for their rim pressure to get some more opportunities

The ideal trade for Golden State, if they’re going to deal Wiseman, likely involves tonight’s opponent in the Jazz, where they can pick up good interior defense and strengthen their point of attack. But in all likelihood, the best deal they’re going to get is one or the other, and in that situation, it’s best to shore up the outside so they play less at a disadvantage.

(Photo credit: Logan Riely / Getty Images)