Under normal circumstances, Golden State Warriors fans would be dissecting and analyzing exactly how the new-look roster would fit come to the start of next season. But of course, this year has been anything but “normal,” and while 22 NBA teams close out the regular season in Orlando and begin the playoffs in the month of August, the Golden State Warriors are preparing to see where their odds lie in the upcoming NBA Draft Lottery on Thursday. 

How the ping pong balls fall in the Warriors’ favor has implications on the future of the franchise, and that is not an overstatement. With a guaranteed top-five pick, does Golden State create a package of assets to make a big move in the offseason? Or if they earn the number one overall pick, do they draft their prospect for the future? 

Ahead of Thursday night, the Warriors Talk writers discussed each possible scenario, which prospect they like, as well as what Golden State could likely fetch for their first-round pick in this year’s draft. 

If the Warriors choose to hold onto their first-round pick (guaranteed to be top-five), which prospect do you believe they should they select and why? 

Alex Hutton: It would be great to see the Warriors take Deni Avdija, the Israeli forward who I think is both the best player in the draft and the player who best fits them. He is 6’9” with a lot of the skills of a point guard and a terrific basketball IQ. He already has experience — and accolades — at the professional level, winning three Israeli Premier League titles and the 2020 league MVP despite being just 19 years old. He has some weaknesses, including outside shooting, and he’ll need some time to develop. But the Warriors can afford to take a player who needs some development, and it could result in Avdija becoming their next smart, steady, position less wing.

Candice Evans: If available, the Warriors should focus their efforts on drafting and developing Anthony Edwards. Aside from his obvious athleticism and motor, Edwards has the body that can be developed into a defensive stopper for the Dubs. The West highlights some of the best small forwards in the league-- and world. While Andrew Wiggins can play that role, he is only one person. The Dubs will have to carve out a defensive identity if they hope to climb back to the top of the pack. Edwards can help that climb.

Carlos Murillo: It’s no secret that this draft class is uninspiring with few players projecting to join the ranks of the rising stars that the last few drafts have produced. Still, the Warriors have the rare opportunity to add a top pick to a team with championship hopes. I change my mind almost every day on who they should pick. Lately, I’ve bought some real estate on Lamelo Ball island -- a 6’7 guard with pro basketball experience and maybe the highest ceiling of the class because of his vision and length. I could also understand Anthony Edwards for his potential as a reserve scorer and Obi Toppin for his size. I’d be inclined to stay away from James Wiseman unless there’s legitimate interest from a potential trade partner.

Pete Hernandez: Where exactly the Warriors draft is undoubtedly a factor here, and even then Bob Myers hit the mark when he compared this year’s draft class with “Moneyball” in mind. There is a lot of uncertainty with this year’s prospects, but if I went on intuition alone I would say Anthony Edwards would be the pick here. He averaged 19.1 points through a rather inconsistent freshman season, but he’s flashed the potential and athleticism that warrants his name in discussions for the first selection. What is key will be for Golden State to draft a prospect that they feel can help contribute right away (to maximize the window left for Steph, Klay, and Draymond), while also keeping an eye on developing said prospect in the long-term. If anything, the ultimate goal will be keeping Edwards motivated on both ends of the court. Obi Toppin’s size and relative strength as an outside shooter also have me intrigued, and if his parents are personally hoping for Golden State to become his home, who could ignore that?

Should the Warriors decide to trade away their first-round pick, what player or assets would you like to see GS attempt to acquire in return? What would your ideal trade package be? 

Alex Hutton: It largely depends on whether or not they wind up picking higher or lower in the draft than the Knicks. If they get a better pick than New York, the Warriors’ front office can entice the Knicks’ front office with the potential to trade up and draft LaMelo Ball, whom it is believed the Knicks badly want. This could lead to a situation in which the Warriors get numerous assets from the Knicks, perhaps one or two first-round picks and/or a young player. If that’s not an option, the ideal situation would probably be to package the pick with the traded player exception to acquire a player they would otherwise be unable to afford. A lot of different players have been named as potential targets in this regard, but Marcus Smart particularly stands out to me. He’s an outstanding defender and underrated offensive player who could be a key piece in small-ball and closing lineups.

Candice Evans: Unlike the 2019 draft, this draft doesn’t highlight expected-generational talent. While there are always hidden gems in draft classes, this draft class doesn’t have the same flair as the past three draft classes. Personally, I would trade the pick to Denver in exchange for Mason Plumlee and Gary Harris. Plumlee is a versatile big man that can pop the mid-range, and has the playoff experience need for the Dubs to make a run. Harris is a D-and-three guard that can anchor the Warriors bench scoring and play/contribute during crunch time.

With the emergence of Bol Bol and Micheal Porter Jr. along with the upcoming free agency of Jamal Murry, Denver may be in need of some movements to make space within their cap. That’s where the Warriors should slide in.

Carlos Murillo: In an ideal world, the Milwaukee Bucks beg Bob Myers to take Giannis Antetokounmpo off their hands. The Warriors are dreaming big and will undoubtedly monitor Giannis’ temperature, Ben Simmons’ and Joel Embiid’s dynamic, and Karl-Anthony Towns’ patience. I think, more likely, the Warriors will turn their eyes towards a lower-tier star -- maybe a Bradley Beal or Myles Turner -- or someone a notch below with upside in Golden State’s system, like an Aaron Gordon. The big fish would be nice, but a solid non-superstar might be more realistic given the Warriors’ assets and financial limitations. Ideally, Golden State could hold onto Eric Paschall, but I imagine any significant deal -- or set of moves -- will require them to part ways with several young players as the front office looks for valuable veterans.

Pete Hernandez: I am of the personal belief that #34 in Milwaukee will end up staying where he is, but that was after I saw the Bucks’ Game 1 performance against the Magic (albeit, way too small and early of sample size). I do believe that Golden State, if they truly want to package their top-five pick, along with Minnesota’s pick as well as other assets in a deal, then they would do so with making a “splash” in mind. Giannis of course is the ideal scenario (one that would have to be done via trade due to the obstacles and logistics in the way), but another target that I have warmed up to is Aaron Gordon. Jonathan Isaac’s injury complicates this possibility, and it would likely require trading away young talent like Eric Paschall in the process. But at 24 years old, Gordon has athleticism that benefits both ends of the floor, and the Warriors do love to switch a lot on defense, which Gordon could benefit from. 

Which scenario do you have more confidence in and why: 

1. The Warriors successfully draft and develop their top-five draft pick to be a long-term piece

2. Golden State successfully trades away their pick in a package that significantly helps upgrade the roster

Alex Hutton: I’m going with Option B. Bob Myers has had a greater hit rate on free agency and trades than he has on draft picks and young players, so I trust him more to make the right call on the former. Furthermore, since there are no can’t-miss prospects in this year’s draft, there’s a greater amount of bust potential than normal. It would almost certainly be safer and more beneficial in the short term to add an established player who can instantly improve the Warriors’ title hopes.

Candice Evans: I have confidence in both scenarios. 

The Warriors have done great developing young talent in the past-- see Kevon Looney and Quinn Cook. If they decide to keep their pick, they are committing to that relationship. I have full confidence that the Warriors staff will be able to develop whomever they pick into the player they need for their system.

If they trade the pick away, I trust that Bob Myers would make a sound decision on a trade. He has a pretty solid history, and until he produces a few head-scratchers, he gets the benefit of the doubt.

Carlos Murillo: I think I’d lean towards the first option. Their trade options are limited and their assets aren’t the most enticing. Furthermore, the Warriors seem committed to the Andrew Wiggins experience which, likely, means the pick isn’t going anywhere. There’s no Zion Williamson -- a surefire franchise cornerstone type of player -- but there’s a chance to develop a young talent into an effective player in a post-Splash Brothers world, one that helps usher in the next era of Warriors basketball while contributing now.

Pete Hernandez: I have more confidence in the first option, precisely because I believe it is also the most likely option that Golden State will face. Unless Giannis pulls an Anthony Davis and publicly demands a trade to the Warriors, I find any other realistic and potential trade targets to not be worthwhile of packaging the Warriors pick, potentially Minnesota’s pick, as well as another young talent. The hope is that Golden State’s pick falls at least between 1-3, and even then Bob Myers and company must understand that it’s in their best interest to make the right selection, and prove their player development system is sound. Hindsight will always be 20/20, but even in this uncertain draft class, the front office cannot afford to completely whiff on their selection. If they can correctly draft a prospect that will at the very least be able to produce on the court now and into the future, that’s a win in my book.