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What Can The Warriors Expect From Kelly Oubre And How Will He Fit Into Golden State's System

With Klay Thompson out for the season, Kelly Oubre is the projected fill in. What does Oubre bring to the table and how does it fit with the current Warriors team? 

Kelly Oubre Jr. has dazzled fans of both the Wizards and Suns-- two franchises trying to find relevance within the NBA. To most casual fans, Oubre doesn’t have many defining moments because he wasn’t involved in memorable games.

His most memorable moment may have come in the playoffs when Oubre floored Kelly Olynk after a perceived dirty play. To Golden State fans, they likely remember Oubre for a different altercation.

A few season back, Oubre struck fan-favorite Klay Thompson with an elbow during an altercation between Draymond Green and Bradley Beal. The slug had fans in a frenzy, while the officials decided it didn’t warrant an ejection. The Warriors fanbase and media expressed their anger and disappointment over the incident. Klay Thompson is a beloved member of the franchise. A player who is irreplaceable.

Three seasons later, Oubre will try to not only become apart of the base whom he had angered but also fill in for the man who they love.

Following news of Thompson’s ruptured achilles tendon, Bob Myers picked up the phone to trade for Oubre-- a trade that comes with heavy financial implications.

Oubre is owed $14.4 million, spinning the Warriors’ luxury tax bill to $80 million. While Joe Lacob is committed to paying it, the obvious question of whether or not Oubre is worth the bill arises.

What kind of production can fans expect? What kind of player is Oubre? 

In short, the Warriors are getting a solid shooter, quality slasher, and a good defender. How does that fit into the Warriors’ system? Let’s dig in.

Fast-break weapon

Oubre scored 282 transition points in 229 possession during the 2019-20 NBA season. That efficiency alone is impressive but to gather a better understanding of this stat, the only players in the league to have 300 or more transition points were LeBron James (396), Pascal Siakam (376), Bradley Beal (351), Kyle Lowry (336), and Trae Young (335). Among the top 30-transition scorers in the league, Oubre was the second most efficient.

While he has other attributes on the court, his natural habitat is the open court. He’ll be most valuable for the Warriors in the open court, a space that Steve Kerr’s system frequent in. 

In 2019-20, Oubre averaged 18.7 ppg-- 27 percent of which was scored in transition. On the other hand, only 13 percent of his scoring came in from pic-and-roll. In the half-court, his offense isn’t the same high-efficient machine as it is in transition.

The Warriors shouldn’t try to get stuck in the halfcourt often. They should be a rebound and go, get the ball out the net type team this season. Decision making should lie in the hands of Stephen Curry and Draymond Green-- and Brad Wannamaker if neither is in.

The center should be able to rim run with Oubre and Wiggins-- two similar transition players-- running the wings. Curry or Green should push the ball with the other trailing the play.

This formula will allow the Warriors to speed up the tempo, and for Oubre to excel. 

What type of jumpshot does he have

Again, Oubre is no Thompson. There aren’t many players in the league’s history who can do what Klay Thompson can do. But since he is out for the foreseeable future, Oubre will have to do.

Unlike Thompson, who finished in the top ten for transition three-point makes in four of the five championship run years, Oubre doesn’t run the floor for a three-pointer. He runs the floor for a layup/dunk. Only 19 of Oubre’s 103 transition makes last season were threes.

With that said, he is still very capable. In every season of his career, Oubre has improved his three-point shooting, sporting a career-high 35 percent last season on a solid 5.5 attempts per game. 

Oubre, and Wiggins, will need to shoot between 35 and 38 percent from the three-point line for the Warriors to be successful this season. Oubre’s career productivity says that he will be able to accomplish that feat-- especially playing with a guy who forces defenses to throw out traps and box-in-ones. 

Is he a playmaker

Kerr may need to tweak the motion offense to fit the new personnel. In prior years, the Warriors had multiple high IQ players who could zip the ball around the court to the right person at the right time. Wiggins, Poole, and Oubre are not those types-- at least not yet.

Oubre only has 327 assists in his 348 career games… yes he has fewer assists than games played. Last season, he averaged 1.5 apg for the Suns.

Not to say he is a ball hog, because that is not the play. Oubre‘s role on his former teams was not to play make. When he got the ball in the half-court his job was to either get in the lane and score or hit the jumpshot. Only 31 total Suns possessions ended in Oubre isolations last season-- many because of offensive breakdowns and end of the quarter heaves.

On the other hand, Oubre, Wiggins, and Poole are much faster and more athletic than the guards of past Warrior teams. Oubre, and Wiggins, can easily slide into the lob slot that Iguodala used to play during the vintage Curry-Green pick-and-roll sessions. 

Can Oubre defend?

Oubre — when defensively involved in the result — gave up 549 points on 578 possessions a season ago, which is in the 41st percentile. That number deems him an “average” defender in the pick-and-roll and “good” in isolation. 

Numbers only tell half of the story-- look at the Rockets. When using the eye test, not worrying about team rotations and screens, he’s long and active enough to get pretty consistent stops against solid scorers. 

His 1.3 steals per game is tied with LeBron James for third among small forwards for the 2019-20 season. Only his former teammate Mikal Bridges and Kawhi Leonard average more steals per game from the small forward position.

That is good company to be amongst.

Oubre has an insane wingspan for someone of his height and position: 7-foot-3. That means the Warriors’ projected starting lineup would have four players -- Oubre, Wiggins, Green, Wiseman-- with wingspans 7-feet or longer. That’s a whole lot of defensive potential from a team standpoint-- something, among many other things, that was missing last season. 

What about when Klay returns?

Oubre is an unrestricted free agent next summer. This could easily be a very expensive rental. He can walk for nothing, or the Warriors could flip him before the deadline-- something they did with D’Angelo Russell last season.

But Oubre turns 25 next month. His best playing years should be around the corner. Once Thompson returns, he would be the perfect young, energetic backup that can play 20-25 minutes. 

As long as his personality fits the team, and Lacob continues to be willing to pay the cost to keep everyone, Oubre is someone who the Warriors can benefit from keeping long term.