In key postseason games, Curry has flown while Harden has fluttered; whoever shows up bigger in games six and (if necessary) seven will decide this series and more
With 2:11 to go in the third quarter, Kevin Durant, who was averaging 35.4 points with a 50-40-90 in 40 minutes a game – the best scoring start to the playoffs since Michael Jordan – knocked down a baseline jumper, landed on his heels and looked back at his calf, limping off the court.
At that moment, the Rockets trailed by three and were in the midst of a 38-21 run. With the possibility of a serious injury for Durant, a short Warriors bench and a scoring machine who averaged 36 points per game during the regular season, they had the opportunity to begin righting their wrongs from last season’s Western Conference Finals.
But Harden and Paul, the two players taking up two-thirds of their salary cap space, managed only seven shots over that final stretch and were outscored by Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson (who went 8-14, including 3-5 on threes), 22-13. The two Rockets didn’t take a single shot from 8:58 in the fourth until Kevon Looney blocked a Paul layup with 1:17 left and were outscored by their backcourt adversaries 13-4 over that span.
The close of that game is indicative of the four players – and specifically Harden and Curry’s – history in series-clinching games.
And their play over the next two games(if necessary) will potentially define their legacies.
We know what we’re gonna get for the most part from Kevon Looney, Clint Capela, Eric Gordon, Andre Igoudala, Draymond Green, PJ Tucker, Klay Thompson and even Chris Paul.
Their numbers may vary – Thompson will certainly be closer to his 2016 playoff average of 24 points than his current average of 17.5, I doubt Paul will shoot 3-14 again and Looney will probably score more than five points, especially early in games – but for the most part, their play will be constant, as it has been for the majority of the past two playoff series.
But Curry and Harden, who have had vastly different experiences in high-pressure games, will decide who takes game six and (possibly) seven.
As much flack as Curry gets for not being clutch in the playoffs, he has been stomp-on-your-throat good in closeout games, averaging 29.55 points, 5.9 rebounds and 6.8 assists on 47.6% shooting and 44.8% on threes, all up from his career playoff numbers. Not surprisingly, the Warriors are 15-5 in such games.
He has only scored under 25 four times in 19 such games – his first, in a win against the Nuggets in 2013 (22 points), game seven of the 2016 Finals (17), and games five and six against the Clippers in the first round (24 in each game), two of which represented two of the five losses. The other three came in game seven against Chris Paul and the Clippers in 2014 and games five and six of the 2016 Finals.
He has scored 35-or-more five times and has notched at least eight assists in 10 games.
It's much of the reason he is identified by many as a “front-runner” – because he closes the door in a way that has helped shut down potential champions and pick apart great rosters.
On the other side of the aisle, Harden has been prone to major disappointments in elimination games, including two especially bad ones in the 2015 WCF (14 points, 12 turnovers, 2-11 shooting) and the 2017 Western Conference Semifinals (10 points, six turnovers, 2-11 shooting in a 39-point loss).
All of his playoff averages have dipped in elimination games, dropping to 27.6 points, six rebounds, 6.3 assists, 5.4 turnovers on 40.4% shooting and 33.75% from three.
Much like it looked last night, his massive usage rate (33% in the regular season and playoffs since 2012-13 and 36% since 2016-17) wares on him late in the season, resulting in a passive Harden who is disengaged defensively and not aggressive offensively. This trend stretches all the way back to the 2014 playoffs, in game six of the first round against Portland. People remember that game for Damian Lillard’s catch-and-shoot dagger three with 0.8 seconds (accompanied by a gem of a call by Mike Tirico), but Harden – who dropped 34 points on an insanely efficient 15 shots – scored only two points on 1-4 shooting with one rebound in the fourth quarter, letting Dwight Howard (you forgot he was on the Rockets too, didn’t you) take the lead.
That same round in 2014, Curry scored 33 with 14 points in the fourth quarter in a game seven loss to the Clippers (also the last time Chris Paul won a game seven).
(For comparison, Curry has averaged 27.78 points and 7.2 assists on 44% shooting in nine career elimination games, with a 5-4 record).
With Harden, it is always about finding a balance between being efficient and being a force, and he hasn’t been able to walk that rope without tumbling to his death.
In game five, with a chance to take the reigns of the series and their championship hopes, Harden chose once again to be passive, and it once again resulted in a loss.
Curry, on the other hand, became the aggressor, taking chances and improving his efficiency at the same time.
Game six in Houston and (potentially) game seven in Oakland are going to hang on the two MVPs, and whether Curry can continue his dominance in closeout games (again, a 15-5 record) or Harden can flip the script in elimination games and finally break through with a dominant performance indicative of his regular season play will decide the next two games, and possibly define their legacies.