Mid-season report: Top challengers, MVP frontrunners, and top storylines

The Warriors have played 41 games, which means we’re halfway through their regular season. 

Everything that happened before Christmas was an appetizer. In reality, everything that happens before April is happenstance; Klay said it himself last night in the Dubs’ thrashing of the New York Knicks– “this isn’t the halfway mark; this is the third for us.”

Regardless, the league is finally starting to catch up with the back-to-back Champs. We’ve seen offenses score at a higher pace than ever; big men become floor generals and three-point shooting maestros; rookies and sophomores explode on the scene and franchises finally close the all-too-publicized competitive gap between the back-to-back champs and the rest of the NBA. 

And now, its time to evaluate where everyone stands in the grand scheme of things.

Let’s take a look at the contenders, MVP candidates, and top storylines to look at for the rest of the season.

Top challengers to the Warriors’ crown

One of the greatest things we’ve seen in the first 41 games of the season is the emergence of many young, exciting teams. While some of the same players remain at the forefront, several surprising contenders have risen from the fray.

1. Denver Nuggets (27-12, first in the West)

If the Warriors are this generation’s symbolic team, the Nuggets are emblematic of where this league is heading. Charles Barkley really called this one.  

They are the most balanced team in the NBA – no player averages over 20 points, but six score over 10 a game and four over 15, both most in the league. Five of their top-six scorers are under 30, and four are under 25. 

Often one detractor of balanced teams is the lack of a reliable late-game scorer, but Jamal Murray is as dangerous of a bucket-getter as there is in the league, and has shown out with games of 36, 46 (on the road) and 48 points.

And let’s not forget Nikola Jokic, a 7-foot point-forward whose vision and creativity Bill Walton compared to Nelson Mandela. Averaging 18.9 points, 10 rebounds, and 7.4 assists, he is the future of the NBA, and one of the hardest covers in the association. 

And while this team is devoid of much playoff experience, often times ignorance is bliss, and they will be hard to beat in a seven-game series. 

2. Toronto Raptors (31-12, second in the East)

This team changed the second they traded for Kawhi Leonard. He may only stay for one year, but this is unquestionably the best team the Raptors have ever fielded.

Leonard is a bonafide MVP candidate, and after a year off the court, he has not missed a step. 

Unlike the Nuggets, who are young and untested, this team is full of playoff vets, among them Leonard, Danny Green, Serge Ibaka, and Kyle Lowry. 

But what this team really brings to the table that would challenge the two-time defending champs in length. The teams that have given the Warriors serious problems are big and long while being mobile; the 2015-16 Thunder, 15-16 Cavs, and 17-18 Rockets. They have shown themselves to be the class of the East, and look to be the most likely team to make it to the Finals. 

3. The Rockets (23-16, sixth in the West)

The team that was, buy their account, one Chris Paul hamstring (or 27 missed three-pointers) away from going to the Finals is right back in the thick of it in the West. They are missing one of their six key rotation guys from last year in Trevor Ariza, but Harden, P.J. Tucker, Eric Gordon, Gerald Green, Clint Capela and Chris Paul will surely be back with a vengeance. Knowing Daryl Morey, they will likely try and pick up somebody at the trade deadline, but with the addition of Demarcus Cousins, it is unclear if they will have enough firepower on offense to replace Ariza’s defensive prowess. Another team that knows its playing for April and May. 

4. Celtics (24-15, fifth in the East)

With all the talk of the Celtics underachieving and failing on offense, lets look at the numbers. They are second in the NBA in point differential (plus-6.6 per game), third in opponents points per game (105.3), and have a max player coming off of their bench (Gordon Hayward). This team may take a while to find its rhythm, but once it does, it may be the second-most lethal team in the league, and have one of only two players in the NBA to beat the Warriors in a playoff series in the Steve Kerr era. 

5. The Warriors (internal disagreements, tension, complacency)

We’ve seen this story before. Dynasties never last forever – but don’t tell Joe Lacob that – even ones headed by two of the most easy-going superstars the league has ever seen. 

ESPN is putting out a whole docuseries on the 1997-98 Bulls, who to their credit, even with all their issues, still seemingly slept-walked to 62 wins and took down the Jazz for their sixth title of the decade. The Lakers in the early 2000s underplayed their potential in the regular season several years in a row, and eventually, we saw the divide between Shaq and Kobe grow too big to overcome. We see signs of decay this year – a lack of interest, a blowout between Draymond and Durant, pending free agency distractions, a lack of depth and a lack of a consistent offensive gameplan. In the end, in the NBA, talent always wins, but talent can also beat itself. And really, if anyone other than the Warriors wins, its because the Warriors beat themselves. If someone gave me a choice of the Warriors vs. the Field, I’d take the Warriors 99 out of 100 times. But if there was ever a time that this dynasty was beatable, its right now. 

MVP Frontrunners

1. James Harden

In the span of around three, I – and most of the NBA community – have come around on Harden and the Rockets. He has dragged them from the bottom tier of the West to within a game of a hosting a playoff series, winning eight of their last ten (the last eight games without Chris Paul). At this point, nobody is as good offensively as Harden, even if he is getting there with questionable foul calls and blatantly obvious travels. He has 13-straight 30-point games, 11 40-point games and is averaging a league-high 33.7 points along with 8.7 assists. In terms of one-man shows, he stands alone. 

2. Stephen Curry

I could suffocate you with analytics of his value, anecdotes of his impact and the like. But really only one stat matters: The Warriors are 22-8 when he starts (three of which came against three of the top-five winningest teams in the NBA), and 5-6 when he sits. One of the great teams in the history of the league turns into a .500 team characterized by explosive arguments and tension-filled press conferences. Not to mention he is averaging a near-career-best 29.4 points per game and is a few good weeks away from yet another 50-40-90 season. 

3. Kawhi Leonard

As I said before, Kawhi has single-handedly turned the Raptors into a legitimate contender. He is averaging 26.8 points and 8.4 rebounds and has turned in signature performances against the Warriors, 76ers and Celtics, raising his game to meet the challenge. Not to mention his defensive dominance. 

4. Giannis Antetokounmpo 

Is anybody as physically dominant as Giannis? At 23, he’s taken a huge jump, posting averages of 26.6 points, along with 12.6 rebounds, six assists and 58 percent shooting (all three of which are easily career highs). The Bucks are second in the East, and Giannis leads the league in shooting percentage inside the arc. As long as he keeps his game close to the basket, he will continue to ascend.

5. LeBron James

What do I need to say? The Lakers have been doormats for the last four years, and LeBron has made them into legit contenders. He’s top-five in points once again, hitting right near his career average at 27.6 a game, and is once again top-10 in assists. If LeBron is breathing and walking, he is an MVP candidate.

Top Storylines

1. How do the Warriors incorporate Demarcus Cousins?

Several insiders are reporting that Cousins’ goal is to make his Warriors debut on January 18 against the Clippers, if not that game then some point on that LA trip. Sometime in the next few weeks, we will finally get to see one of the best big men in the league integrate into one of the greatest offenses in history. Never before have we seen one team with four guys who can go for 50 on any given night. With all that firepower, however, we have to wonder: how will it work? We won’t have to wait long to see.

2. Trade deadline action

Several teams – namely the Lakers, Rockets and Celtics – have expressed a desire to go after another piece by the deadline. With their current makeups, any team with championship aspirations will have to add an all-star difference-maker, if not an all-NBA man. If Anthony Davis moves, like many pundits believe will happen, whichever team lands him immediately becomes a championship-caliber team.

3. Impending free agency decisions

This summer, two integral pieces of the Warriors – Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson – will jump into unrestricted free agency. We’ve already reached the “sources said” season and many “sources” have ideas on where the two All-NBA players are headed. At the same time, Marcus Thompson of The Athletic has reported that the impending decisions have created distractions for Durant, Thompson and some other members of the organization. We know that when it comes down to it, the two of them can suit up and ball, but will it continue to impact the team?